The Fateful Summer Of 2026
- 26.08.2026, 21:30
How Ukraine Took the Initiative in the “Long War.”
Over the course of four years, Russia has launched far more long-range missiles and drones than Ukraine has launched in response. In the summer of 2026, the balance of power shifted, and Ukraine has now begun to strike Russia with greater force than Russia has struck Ukraine.
These changes did not happen quickly or without difficulty. The Ukrainians gradually and steadily developed more advanced and cheaper long-range drones and cruise missiles, while simultaneously striking Russian factories to disrupt the production of missiles and drones within Russia itself.
At the same time, the Ukrainians damaged Russian air defense systems to ensure they could carry out increasingly large-scale strikes deep into Russian territory.
The Ukrainians’ goal was to increase the cost of the war for Russia. Of course, no influential person believes that bombing alone can win a war. But it can accelerate the conclusion of a negotiated peace.
In June, Russian forces launched approximately 6,000 attack drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles, at Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian air defense systems typically shoot down 90% of incoming drones, and about half of the cruise missiles; however, the 600 or more missiles and drones that likely got through in June still amounted to a huge number—and resulted in significant destruction, injuries, and deaths in Ukrainian cities.
However, the figure of 6,000 munitions is actually good news for Ukraine. After all, in May, the Russians launched more than 8,000 munitions to strike deep-rear targets. And in both March and April, they launched more than 6,500 such munitions. At the same time, the number of Ukrainian strikes on deep-seated targets has risen sharply. In May, the Ukrainians launched 9,000 drones and missiles, and in June they exceeded that figure, ending the month with 11,500 launches. That’s 2.5 times more than in April.
It is difficult to say how many of the 11,500 munitions penetrated Russia’s weakening air defense system. However, it is quite possible that Russia’s interception rate is similar to Ukraine’s own: on average, about 90% across all types of enemy munitions.
In other words, it is quite possible that in June, Ukrainian forces carried out 1,150 strikes against key targets on Russian territory and in Russian-occupied territories. That is nearly twice as many as the strikes carried out by the Russians that same month.
David Axe, "Focus"