Tokayev Is Preparing For Life Without Putin

• 4.08.2026, 8:00

Russia is no longer able to fulfill its obligations.

Last week, Kazakh President Tokayev called on Putin to put an end to the war in Ukraine. Tokayev is a smart man. In Kazakhstan, it is gradually becoming clear that Russia will never again be a reliable trading partner or transit route.

The economic motives behind Tokayev’s actions lie not only in Ukraine’s strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminals in Novorossiysk and on CPC tankers, but also in the strikes on the Orenburg gas processing plant, which brought production of raw materials in Kazakhstan to a halt.

Putin’s inadequate response—in which he promised to continue the so-called “special military operation”—only proves that Kazakhstan should seek new business partners and no longer rely on cooperation with Russia, which is no longer capable of fulfilling its obligations.

Kazakhstan should stop transiting Russian oil to China and supply oil to China on its own. The country should also build its own oil refineries and gas processing plants to export fuel to Central Asian countries, since Russia will no longer be able to do so.

It would also be logical to abandon cooperation with Russia on the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to China through Kazakhstani territory.

Russia’s ability to complete the project to build a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan is also questionable. The Russians are currently unable to secure funding for their own projects, let alone for a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, which will become a never-ending construction project.

Vitaly Shapran, Facebook