"Lukashenko Received A Warning—a Yellow Card"
- 4.08.2026, 15:38
The dictator may end up in The Hague.
Recently, the Office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to open a criminal case against Belarusian dictator Lukashenko.
What significance might the initiation of a criminal case against Lukashenko have? What are the chances that such a case will have practical consequences?
The website Charter97.org discussed this with renowned Ukrainian political scientist and head of the “Penta” Center for Applied Political Studies Vladimir Fesenko:
— There could be practical legal consequences following a corresponding investigation. First, a legal assessment of this complaint will be conducted to determine under which article and in what manner criminal proceedings against Lukashenko could be initiated. After all, we’re talking about the “leader” of another state. Even if we do not officially recognize him, that is still the case.
Next, certain steps will be taken as part of the investigation into the relevant, strictly legal allegations—this is the first stage of criminal proceedings, when the prosecutor’s office formally charges a specific individual. Since we are talking about the “leader” of a neighboring state who is not subject to Ukrainian jurisdiction, this can only involve trial in absentia.
We have experience with this—the case of the fugitive Viktor Yanukovych. I believe that if a criminal case against Lukashenko is officially initiated, a dilemma will arise for the Ukrainian justice system in a few years: when and in what form can a trial take place to consider the charges against Lukashenko, specifically regarding his participation in the war against Ukraine.
There are two options here. Either it would be a trial in absentia in Ukraine, or Lukashenko could face charges—just like Russian leaders—before an international tribunal that is currently being established by Ukraine and several of its partners. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has already adopted a political resolution on the establishment of such a tribunal.
— Please tell us more about this.
— The work currently underway is complex, and there won’t be a quick result here. A coalition is being formed—that is, countries that are signing the relevant agreements and will provide financial, organizational, and political support for the tribunal’s work. There are preliminary agreements with the Dutch government that this tribunal will operate in The Hague.
That’s just a purely symbolic hint. The International Criminal Court is located there, but there are also a number of other international courts.
If such a tribunal begins its work—which, objectively speaking, will happen in a few years—charges could be brought against both Putin and a number of other Russian officials involved in initiating and waging the war against Ukraine. And Lukashenko may also be among those implicated in this case.
I think the most likely scenario is that if corresponding criminal proceedings begin in Ukraine, they may eventually be transferred to the jurisdiction of this tribunal.
I would note that, from a purely political standpoint, in my view, the purpose of this appeal to the Prosecutor General’s Office at this moment is to serve as a warning to Lukashenko.
If Belarus gets drawn into the war against Ukraine—not indirectly, but directly, as part of the escalation of the war currently being planned by Putin—then Ukraine will view Lukashenko as a war criminal. In other words, it’s a warning—like a yellow card in soccer. Right now, Lukashenko is hoping that, as part of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, sanctions against Russia—and, to some extent, against Belarus as well—will be lifted, at least partially.
This is what the closed-door negotiations with the Americans are about. Lukashenko wants something similar to happen in Europe as well. But if there is a verdict from the ICC or legal proceedings, what room would there be for leniency or the lifting of sanctions? It would likely be the opposite.
This is the message being sent to Lukashenko: he should not get drawn into a war against Ukraine. And looking ahead, depending on the circumstances, I think the most likely scenario for charges against Lukashenko and corresponding legal proceedings would be an international tribunal.