"Lukashenko's New Brigade Could Be Used As Cannon Fodder"
- 6.08.2026, 11:25
A Ukrainian colonel assessed the situation on the border with Belarus.
A new strike force is being formed in southern Belarus. The 37th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade will be stationed near Gomel, just a few dozen kilometers from the Ukrainian border. It will consist of airborne, artillery, anti-aircraft, and reconnaissance units.
What is the real purpose of creating a new airborne assault brigade near Gomel? For what military scenarios might it be being prepared?
The website Charter97.org discussed this with Colonel (Reserve) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a participant in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Iraq, Serhiy Grabsky:
— The presence of a military unit at such a distance from Ukraine’s state border poses a threat to our country’s national security. No matter what they claim—even if their intentions are entirely peaceful—there are international treaties that prohibit the deployment of such units.
On the other hand, the brigade is still being formed. Here, we need to understand what time frame we’re talking about. If we’re talking about the next few months, then it doesn’t raise any particular concerns. The question is what kind of threat it could pose and what it is capable of doing.
If, however, we’re talking about the medium term—from six months to a year—then we can begin to consider possible scenarios for its use. But that doesn’t mean it will take part in an immediate offensive against Ukraine.
The very presence of the new assault brigade will provoke a legitimate response from the Ukrainian side. Ukraine will be forced to maintain an appropriate balance of power and keep its troops deployed in that area. Therefore, we will not be able to deploy these units in other sectors.
But a single brigade on its own—especially a Belarusian one—is nothing out of the ordinary. We understand that its strength will be approximately 3,500 to 4,000 personnel. As a rule, the Special Operations Forces’ airborne assault brigades consist of precisely that number of service members.
You understand that, on its own, such a brigade cannot be used as a serious combat force against the Ukrainian Defense Forces, especially under current conditions.
— The Zyabrovka airfield is nearby, which is used by the Russian military. Could Russia deploy this new brigade to launch an offensive or divert Ukrainian forces in the Chernihiv direction?
— Of course it could. Why not? If Putin gives the order to Minsk, this brigade will be used as cannon fodder in this war, as a military force against Ukraine. I am far from thinking that the current Minsk regime possesses any autonomy or pursues its own policy. Therefore, if ordered, the order will be carried out.
But I still don’t think the brigade will be deployed anytime soon. It’s too expensive and impractical, since it hasn’t even been formed yet. What do we have as of today? Literally just one battalion. The rest of the units are still in the process of being formed.
There is absolutely no question of this brigade being used in combat operations for at least a year. It must be fully formed, undergo combat coordination, and complete a full range of staff- and field-level exercises and training. Then its readiness must be assessed. Only after that can it be considered a fully-fledged military unit.
But here’s the next question: Does this brigade have combat experience? Are there people in it who have gained such experience? I can assume that there are or will be. But does that mean the brigade will be deployed in a war as a single military unit? No.
There is another point to understand. Individual groups or service members of this brigade may be deployed on a completely “voluntary” basis to carry out sabotage operations on Ukrainian territory, including in the Chernihiv region. That’s basically it.
As a single unit, the brigade can be deployed in combat operations only if a Russian force is deployed on or near the territory of Belarus.