Evgeny Afnagel: A Window Of Opportunity Is Already Opening For Belarus
- 7.08.2026, 15:01
This is what Belarusians inside the country expect from us.
How do the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine affect the situation in Belarus? What are the most likely scenarios for change in our country?
Yevgeny Afnagel, coordinator of the “European Belarus” civic campaign, spoke about this in an interview with the website Charter97.org.
— Ukraine has seized the strategic initiative: with precision strikes, it is undermining the Russian economy and has turned the tide on the front lines. What are its chances of building on this success and achieving victory?
— Ukraine has indeed turned the tide of the war. I would even emphasize here not so much the burning Wildberries warehouses as the strikes on logistics and oil refineries, since fuel supplies are crucial for the Russian army.
What happens next depends largely on the West’s willingness to help Ukraine. Right now, Ukraine does, after all, is facing problems due to a shortage of missiles for air defense systems, including missiles for the Patriot system, which Kyiv has still been unable to obtain. Ukraine also lacks its own ballistic missiles. But most importantly, it has an immense will to win and a significant technological advantage over Russia.
The combination of these two factors is the key to building on the successes Ukraine has already achieved.
We must not forget that this is now a war of attrition. We see that Russia is facing very serious economic problems, with a noticeable shortage of resources and technology. The budget deficit for the first months of the year reached nearly six trillion rubles—twice as much as during the same period last year. The decline in revenue from energy exports, sanctions, and drone attacks on oil refineries, against the backdrop of forced increase in war spending—are the Kremlin’s biggest headache. They still remember how similar events brought down the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union; it’s no coincidence that even pro-Putin propagandists are now, one after another, talking about a repeat of 1917 or 1991.
Ukraine can no longer lose this war. Its victory and the restoration of control over the territories occupied by the Russian Federation are only a matter of time.
— What windows of opportunity might a Ukrainian victory open for Belarus? Could Russia’s weakening undermine Lukashenko’s regime and create conditions for the country’s liberation?
— It’s no secret that Lukashenko’s regime relies exclusively on the Kremlin’s support. Naturally, Russia’s weakening or serious internal problems would entail problems for the regime as well.
I think this is understood—and in some quarters, even anticipated—within Lukashenko’s inner circle. A palace coup is one of the most likely scenarios in the coming years. The only reason officials and security forces did not defect en masse to the people’s side in 2020—even though such sentiments were widespread at the time—was the incompetence of the formal protest leaders, “Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters.” Today we are once again seeing signs of the system’s decay within Belarus: Lukashenko’s delusional demands, the “Potemkin villages” that officials are building for him, constant lies, the pretense of frenetic activity, and the government’s detachment from the people.
And all around—people who, though they remain silent due to repression, are by no means blind; they see what is happening in Belarus and beyond, and they hate both the aging dictator and his minions. The arrests we hear about almost every day are the clearest sign that Belarusians’ attitude toward the regime has not changed since 2020.
The main issue is that we’ve already had quite a few such windows of opportunity over the past decades. These include 2010, 2020, and 2021, as well as the period following those events. Unfortunately, despite the heroism and courage of the Belarusian people, we have not achieved our main goal—the liberation of the country. In some cases, we lacked resources; in others, we lacked resolve. These mistakes have cost us dearly, so it is important to learn from them and avoid making the same mistakes now.
We must understand what we will do next: how to build a new country, form a government, hold free elections, reform the economy, seek allies, and attract investment and technology. This is now a key task for all Belarusians, especially those living abroad. This is what our compatriots inside the country expect of us. Changes in Belarus will happen in the near future in any case, but they could also happen without the participation of patriots and supporters of the European path and development. They could happen without taking the interests of Belarusians into account. We, however, need changes that will lay a solid foundation for building a strong, free, European country.
For these changes to happen, we must not only think about Belarus’s future today, but also begin shaping it right now.