CBC: The War In Eastern Europe Is Rapidly Approaching A Critical Turning Point
- 1.09.2026, 10:26
Moscow might try "something controversial."
Since the beginning of summer, Russia has significantly stepped up its provocations against NATO member countries, reports CBC, adding that Putin is likely trying to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine through these actions.
As the publication’s experts note, the war in Eastern Europe is currently rapidly approaching a critical turning point. The reason for this is that, in the Kremlin’s view, the only way to defeat Ukraine is to politically crush NATO. This is because, according to Moscow, the only reason Ukraine is still able to resist is due to Western aid.
“They are not looking for a way out. They are not looking for… a retreat. When they think about what to do next, escalation is the obvious choice,” – says Vitold Rodkevich, a security expert at the Center for East European Studies at the University of Warsaw, adding that nothing short of a complete victory in Ukraine will satisfy Moscow. The expert noted that the right moment for Moscow could come either before or after the parliamentary elections in Russia.
At the same time, the publication notes, there is still no consensus within NATO regarding the likelihood of a Russian attack. One of the most radical assessments comes from U.S. intelligence, which in August informed Poland and the Baltic states that Russia may be prepared to carry out “provocative actions” against NATO while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing.
Journalists note that Russia has sought to destroy NATO at least since its invasion of Crimea in 2014. However, it was Trump’s return to office that improved the conditions for this. The publication quotes Kerry Buck, former Canadian ambassador to NATO. She noted that Russia now has a window of opportunity to act. And although the diplomat does not believe the Russian Federation will launch a direct attack on NATO, she notes that Moscow may “try something ambiguous.”
“Do I think they will do something so clearly aimed at undermining NATO’s decision-making process and political unity? Absolutely,” Buck said.
The publication, in particular, considers a scenario outlined by Lithuanian intelligence to be likely. It posits that Russia could use captured Ukrainian UAVs for a false-flag operation against a Baltic country. The goal of such a provocation is political rather than military. However, the publication considers this scenario “more plausible.”
This is because Ukrainian UAVs have previously entered NATO airspace on multiple occasions under the influence of Russian electronic warfare systems.
“It’s in their interest to do this now. And I don’t think NATO is fully prepared to respond in any way, especially given the uncertainty regarding the U.S. reaction,” Buck added.