Russia Could Lose 30% Of Its Refining Capacity For A Year And A Half
- 11.09.2026, 20:27
Report by the International Energy Agency.
The International Energy Agency has lowered its baseline forecast for Russian oil refining over the next 18 months to approximately 4 million barrels per day. This is 30% less than before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This is stated in the IEA’s monthly oil market report, according to Bloomberg.
“There remains a risk that even this more conservative estimate may underestimate the challenges facing the Russian oil refining sector. Longer delivery times for spare parts and the approaching cold weather could put additional strain on the Russian system,” — notes the International Energy Agency.
According to the IEA, Russia’s oil refining industry is in decline, as sanctions are preventing it from recovering from the intense and precise strikes by Ukrainian drones.
“At this point, it appears likely that the constant drone strikes and the piecemeal nature of repair work are having a cumulative negative effect and worsening the condition of the oil refining system,” the report states.
According to Bloomberg’s calculations, Russian refineries were hit by at least 22 strikes in August. This is the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale war.
“Ukrainian forces are deploying multiple waves of drones against individual targets, overloading defense systems and air defense capabilities. The accuracy of the strikes also appears to be higher,” the IEA reports.
Currently, drones are striking refining units at Russian oil refineries; replacing them, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency, could take about 6–8 months.
At the same time, sanctions against Russia’s energy sector are limiting access to replacement equipment, which further complicates repair work.
In addition, the IEA lowered its forecast for Russian oil production in 2026 by 125,000 barrels per day—to 8.7 million barrels per day.
On September 10, Bloomberg, citing data from OPEC’s monthly report, reported that in August 2026, Russia produced an average of 8.718 million barrels of oil per day. This is 160,000 barrels per day less than the revised average for July and marks the most significant monthly decline since Russia’s oil production began to decline in December 2025.
On September 3, Bloomberg reported that in August 2026, Russia’s revenue from oil sales fell to its lowest level in the past six months due to a decline in export prices. This situation is increasing pressure on the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war against Ukraine.