Who Holds The "switch" To Modern Warfare?
- 16.09.2026, 13:15
Until recently, governments had complete control over military technology.
Until recently, governments exercised virtually complete control over the infrastructure necessary for waging war. Now the situation is changing. Satellite networks, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence systems are owned by private companies that are able to decide independently to whom and under what conditions to grant access to their technologies, writes CEPA.
Experts have called this the “power of the switch” and warned of the military’s growing dependence on the private sector.
This was particularly evident in Ukraine. The Ukrainian military was preparing a maritime drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea. The operation depended on Starlink. Elon Musk refused to activate the necessary connection, as he believed the strike could lead to a dangerous escalation.
“No government could force him to turn the system on immediately,” the authors write.
The problem extends far beyond Starlink. Private companies can change prices and contract terms right in the middle of a conflict, refuse to carry out certain tasks, or come under pressure from other states.
Take the case of Anthropic, for example. The Pentagon found itself embroiled in a legal dispute with the AI developer after the company refused to accept terms that would have allowed for mass surveillance and the use of autonomous weapons.
For Europe, dependence on American technology creates yet another problem. Brussels speaks of strategic autonomy, but its own alternatives to Starlink are still in the development phase. Amazon is building the Amazon Leo satellite network, while the EU is investing in the IRIS-2 system.
“The dependence emerged faster than the alternatives,” experts note.
The military must account not only for technical equipment failures but also for situations where the company itself decides to cut off access. Armies should identify backup providers in advance, establish operating procedures for times of crisis, and conduct exercises in case of the loss of a critical commercial service.
In modern warfare, states still make the decision to launch hostilities. But the ability to carry out that decision increasingly depends on who holds the “switch.”