European Intelligence Agencies Have Warned Of A Possible Russian Attack On NATO Within The Next Few Months
- 21.09.2026, 8:26
Moscow is shifting from chaotic actions to specific goals.
European intelligence officials acknowledge the possibility that Russia may soon test NATO's resilience—according to one of them, a potential attack could occur "within months, not years."
This was reported by The Guardian.
Concerns have grown after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in parliament that, according to intelligence assessments, Russia may in the coming months use drones or missiles against NATO territory in the coming months to prove that “Article 5 is more theoretical than practical.” French President Macron called these warnings well-founded and convened an emergency meeting of party leaders in Paris.
The head of the Czech BIS Michal Koudelka suggests that the Kremlin’s plans may include a limited incursion into NATO territory near Russia—triggered by provocations under a false flag or a large-scale information campaign. According to him, such a scenario is possible “within months, not years,” although many parties are doing everything they can to prevent it.
The Baltic states, despite sharing borders with Russia, are assessing the situation more cautiously—they point to Moscow’s war-depleted resources and warn that exaggerating the threat plays right into the Kremlin’s hands. The head of Latvia’s VDD , Normunds Mežviets, stated that he sees no direct signs of an imminent attack, although Moscow is clearly preparing for more decisive action.
The Estonian Foreign Ministry publicly criticized the “panic on social media” of recent days, calling for calm and continued support for Ukraine.
According to Koudelka, the Kremlin’s goal is to put pressure on the weak spots of Western societies in order to reduce support for Ukraine: if the pressure is applied strongly enough, Europeans will allegedly refuse to help Kyiv.
All three intelligence chiefs agree: Russia’s campaign of sabotage in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. Nilsson called the recent incident involving an attack drone at Leipzig Airport a “turning point.” Mezhviets added that Moscow is shifting from haphazard arson attacks to specific targets related to support for Ukraine—in particular, the railway and the defense industry.