Five Of Russia's Vulnerabilities In A Potential War With NATO Have Been Identified

• 23.09.2026, 6:00

Military casualties, the economy, and the spending gap severely limit Moscow's capabilities.

Against the backdrop of growing tensions between Russia and NATO, there is increasing discussion about whether Moscow would be willing to engage in a direct conflict with the alliance. Experts have identified five factors that could make waging such a war extremely difficult for Russia, according to Newsweek.

The first is the Russian military’s losses in Ukraine. Since the start of the full-scale war, Russia has lost approximately 1.4 million military personnel, including those killed and wounded. Meanwhile, the rate of recruiting new soldiers in 2026 is already falling behind the monthly losses.

The second factor is the economy. The Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026, and the annual growth forecast was lowered to 0.4%. The National Wealth Fund’s liquid assets have also declined significantly.

“Russia has become much poorer because of the war against Ukraine,” experts say.

The third factor is China. Beijing has not provided Moscow with direct military support and is interested in maintaining access to European and American markets. In the event of an escalation with NATO, China could exert additional pressure on the Kremlin.

Another problem is the gap in military spending. In 2025, Russia spent about $190 billion on defense, while NATO countries spent $1.58 trillion.

Finally, the nuclear factor works both ways. NATO has at its disposal the nuclear forces of the U.S., the U.K., and France, while Moscow faces serious challenges in operating and modernizing its arsenal.

Russia’s weakness does not mean there is no risk. Putin may try to test NATO’s readiness to defend its members, counting on political divisions within the alliance.

“For Putin, such a test is appealing precisely because it could be inexpensive for Russia,” writes Newsweek.