The Invasion Of Ukraine Has Turned Russia Into China's Junior Partner
- 24.09.2026, 11:53
Now Beijing is dictating terms to Putin.
The war against Ukraine has significantly weakened Russia's position in its relations with China. Moscow is becoming increasingly dependent on Beijing as the largest market for its energy resources, while China is gaining the ability to dictate terms, writes Atlantic Council.
The prime example is the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project. It is intended to supply up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China from Russia’s Arctic region. For Moscow, this route is particularly important following the loss of a significant portion of the European market.
However, Beijing is in no hurry to approve the project. China is seeking prices for Russian gas that are comparable to the low domestic rates in Russia itself. Under such conditions, the deliveries could prove unprofitable for Moscow.
In August, Putin again attempted to secure support for the project at the SCO summit in Bishkek, but no agreement was reached. A similar situation arose in May, when the Russian delegation in Beijing was unable to break the deadlock in the negotiations.
“Russia needs the gas pipeline deal much more than China does,” experts note.
Moscow’s position is further complicated by the fact that Beijing has a wide range of suppliers to choose from—from Qatar and Australia to Turkmenistan and Malaysia. China has also resumed purchases of U.S. LNG following a meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump.
At the same time, China is strengthening its economic influence in Central Asia, which has traditionally been considered Moscow’s sphere of influence. According to experts, Beijing has already surpassed Russia in terms of foreign direct investment in the region.
“Relations between Russia and China can no longer be called a partnership of equals,” experts say.
Moscow continues to demonstrate close ties with Beijing, but its dependence on China is growing as relations with the West deteriorate and its room for maneuver shrinks.