Putin's New Plan For Escalation
- 24.09.2026, 12:28
The rigging of parliamentary elections provides a pretext for continuing the war.
Following the parliamentary elections, Putin gained the opportunity to present his policies as an expression of the will of the majority of Russians. The Kremlin achieved the desired outcome in the elections and can now use it to justify continuing the war against Ukraine and a new escalation in tensions with the West, writes Foreign Affairs.
The voting took place amid pressure on voters and the de facto exclusion from the election of the Yabloko party—the only legally operating political force that openly opposed the war. Even the parties that retained seats in the State Duma are under the Kremlin’s control.
At the same time, the actual mood in Russian society is noticeably more complex than the official picture suggests. According to the Levada Center, in July only 50% of those surveyed considered the war a success for Russia. Over the course of a year, this figure has fallen by nearly 20 percentage points. The share of those who believe the country is moving in the right direction fell to 54% over the same period.
The consequences of the protracted war are having an increasingly strong impact on the daily lives of Russians. In August, two-thirds of respondents reported problems with mobile internet, messaging apps, or gasoline. For one in three, the fuel shortage proved to be a serious problem. At the same time, prices are rising, and utility rates are expected to increase starting in October.
Despite this, the Kremlin is preparing a new round of escalation. After the elections, Putin rejected yet another U.S. diplomatic initiative, and Russian authorities have once again begun talking about intensifying attacks on Ukraine. Particular importance is being placed on the winter campaign against Ukraine’s energy sector.
“For Putin, escalation has become the primary means of retaining power,” writes Foreign Affairs.
A new mobilization could create additional problems for the Kremlin. The Russian economy is already facing a labor shortage, a budget deficit, and a slowdown in industrial production. A mass draft of men could deal an even heavier blow to the labor market and demographics.
At the same time, war fatigue has not turned into a mass demand to end the war immediately. More than half of the respondents in the Levada Center’s August poll believe that hostilities could continue for at least another year. At the same time, many respondents advocate not for concessions to Ukraine, but for intensified military strikes. The logic here is simple: some Russians believe that more aggressive actions by Russia could bring the war to a quicker end on Russia’s terms.
This position is convenient for the Kremlin. The authorities can claim that the public, despite economic problems and fatigue, remains willing to bear the costs of the war. This gives Putin leeway to further mobilize resources and raise the stakes once again.
But this policy has its limits. A new mobilization could exacerbate the labor shortage, take a toll on the demographic situation, and place an even greater burden on the economy. The longer the war lasts, the more severely its consequences are felt within Russia itself.
That is precisely why it is important for the Kremlin not only to secure a favorable outcome of the hostilities but also to maintain the perception that the current situation can be endured for a long time to come.