The Potassium Bluff
- 28.09.2026, 8:11
Four Reasons Why Trump-Belarusian Cooperation on Potash Has No Future.
The main topic of the past week was potash fertilizer, which the U.S. began purchasing from Belarus. The initiator of the deal is Donald Trump, who makes no secret of the fact that he needs this new supplier to squeeze out the Canadian source. Or, at the very least, to force his uncooperative neighbors to lower their prices, according to the website "Belarusians and the Market".
To lower them enough so that farmers—who raised concerns about fertilizer prices rising due to Trump’s 10% tariffs—will come to love it again.
It’s not nice to answer a question with a question, but can you name even one of the major economic projects Trump announced that actually worked out?
From an economic standpoint, the idea of replacing Canadian potash with Belarusian potash—at least in the short and medium term—also seems questionable.
And here are at least four reasons why.
First: “Belaruskali” simply does not have the volume needed to fully—or even partially—replace Canadian potash right here and now.
The U.S. produces about 10 percent of its own potash; the remaining 15 million metric tons are imported.
The Canadian mines in Saskatchewan operated by Nutrien and Mosaic account for 80 percent of U.S. imports. That’s about 12 million metric tons.
And that’s roughly the total volume of Belaruskali’s exports for 2025 (11.9 million metric tons). And none of it is destined for the U.S. Lukashenko isn’t being disingenuous—all volumes are already contracted.
And yes. Nezhin is white potash, not the pink granular variety that U.S. agriculture relies on.
The second reason: the deal looks like a PR stunt for Donald Trump, and Belarus risks losing markets it has built up and tested over many years.
To help Trump rein in the Canadians—even if only by half or even a third—Belarus will have to pool its resources. And, consequently, leave some partners behind.
The largest buyers of Belarusian potash are China, India, Indonesia, and other countries in Southeast Asia. It took decades for “Belaruskali,” MKK, and later BKK to enter these markets and establish contacts with local authorities and importers.
And now, should they walk away from these markets just for the sake of Trump’s promises to his farmers? To help him punish Canada, which refused to become the 51st state and instead wants to be an associate member of the European Union?
In a couple of years, there will be elections in the U.S., and Trump will no longer be president. Will his successor still want to punish Canada? And if not, how will the new U.S. administration view sanctions against Belarusian potash?
But returning to the lost markets outside the U.S. will be very difficult. It’s not just a loss of trust, but also competitors who have filled the vacated niche.
Minsk needs to anticipate this. 30,000 metric tons, as it is now, or 700,000 metric tons, as it was before the sanctions—that’s fine. But no one is going to push the envelope and ramp up shipments. Nor will anyone want to squander volumes or lose trusted customers.
Moreover, there’s a third reason: price.
It is reported that the first 30,000 metric tons of Belarusian potassium chloride will arrive in New Orleans in October.
What’s most important isn’t mentioned—at what price, under what terms.
The U.S. lifted sanctions on Russian potash two months after imposing them—in April 2022. And today, Russia is the second-largest supplier to the U.S. market, after Canada. It accounts for 12% of imports, or 1.8 million metric tons.
Russia has larger potash reserves than Belarus. It has the Bronka and Ust-Luga mines and well-established logistics. So why is Trump turning to Minsk instead of Russia?
Most likely because the Russians are unwilling to operate at potentially very low, dumping-level prices designed to drive the Canadians out of the market. The Russians, like the Canadians, want first and foremost to make a profit in this high-margin market.
And here’s a fourth reason: all potash producers are more partners than competitors.
Due to the product’s uniqueness, the potash market is an oligopolistic market. The major producers in this market—namely, the Canadians, Russians, and Belarusians—are, first and foremost, partners and only secondarily competitors, all in the interest of maintaining a profitable selling price.
By entering the U.S. market with dumping, the Belarusians risk facing dumping from the Canadians—in China or India, for example.
And the collapse of the fragile balance of supply and demand. Everyone risks market chaos—a nightmare scenario where conditions are dictated not by the manufacturers of a unique product, but by the buyers.
Is it worth doing this for Trump’s sake during his remaining two years in office?
Doubtful.