"There's Still Time Until Spring": ISW Discusses Putin's Plans

• 28.09.2026, 8:31

Russia's strategy is too costly.

The strategy of long-range strikes against Ukraine is costing Russia dearly, so it will not last indefinitely. Most likely, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin aims to force Ukraine to surrender before spring, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As the analysts note, Russia plans to intensify and accelerate its campaign of strikes against Ukraine this winter, while sufficient resources are still available. Russia’s current campaign of strikes relies on Ukraine’s inability to intercept Russian jet-powered drones and on a shortage of interceptor missiles for the Patriot systems, which are needed to defend against ballistic missiles in the winter of 2026–2027; it also assumes that Ukraine’s energy and other critical infrastructure will not withstand Russian strikes in the coming months.

Russia’s current strike strategy is inflicting significant economic damage on Ukraine; however, if it drags on for too long, the costs of sustaining it could exceed the immediate benefits of the strikes themselves, the ISW warns.

“Putin does not plan for the Russian campaign of long-range strikes against Ukraine to continue indefinitely, as he appears to be aiming to force Ukraine to surrender by spring 2027. Russia’s strategy, which relies heavily on long-range strikes, is costly and cannot be sustained indefinitely, especially given that Ukrainian forces are also intensifying their strikes on Russian territory,” the report states.

According to analysts, Putin is not taking into account the long-term costs of Russia’s strike campaign, counting on Ukraine to break and capitulate this winter. It is unlikely that Putin will make concessions on his demands or engage in serious ceasefire negotiations until he has exhausted the possibilities of this new strategy.