Valery Karbalevich: Lukashenko Does Not Trust Those Around Him
- 30.09.2026, 10:18
Muraveiko's appointment sent an important signal.
The appointment of Pavel Muraveyko as deputy head of Lukashenko’s administration signifies tighter control over the security forces, primarily the army. After all, Lukashenko does not trust his inner circle or the security forces. And he seeks to compensate for this distrust with total control, writes Radye Svaboda political columnist Valery Karbalevich.
A Contradictory Explanation
On September 28, Alexander Lukashenko appointed Pavel Muraveiko as deputy head of his administration. Previously, he served as Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces—First Deputy Minister of Defense.
According to Lukashenko’s explanations, the new appointee will oversee the work of the army and the security sector as a whole. In other words, this is a new position in the administration that did not exist before, and it was created specifically for Muraveiko.
Lukashenko’s own comments regarding this personnel decision are, as usual, quite contradictory. He claims he appointed Muraveyko to the aforementioned position “to gain an alternative perspective on the situation in the Armed Forces”.
But what kind of alternative perspective on the state of the army can a person offer who has just held the second-highest position in that very same army? For a true alternative, someone from outside—from another agency—would have been needed.
Lukashenko also stated:
“There will be a lot of speculation, certain statements, and so on: ‘Lukashenko gave in to the security forces and appointed the former Chief of the General Staff to the administration.’ This is linked to the strengthening of a certain security component there. If it suits someone to speak and reason that way—by all means, I have absolutely no objection. But the fact that this component—the security sector and the direction of our country—is being strengthened is only natural.”
In other words, Lukashenko first calls the increased administrative influence of security officials within the state apparatus “speculation,” and then confirms this version himself, saying that’s exactly how it is.
An Official for When Things Get Hefty
Incidentally, the appointment of security officials to leadership positions in the Presidential Administration is not a recent phenomenon but a long-standing tradition. At various times, people in uniform have served as heads of the Presidential Administration: Ural Latypov, Viktor Sheyman, Gennady Nevyglaz, Vladimir Makei, Igor Sergeenko. And security officials Vladimir Zometalin, Yuri Sivakov, and Stanislav Knyazev.
In a system where executive discipline is valued above all else—rather than initiative or creativity—people in uniform have an inherent advantage.
There is an interesting episode in Pavel Muraveiko’s biography. His appointment as Chief of the General Staff in May 2024 took place under somewhat unusual circumstances. His predecessor Viktor Gulevich was officially discharged from active military service into the reserves due to age. However, 54 is a relatively young age for a military officer of that rank.
The fact that the decree dismissing Gulevich was issued on May 10, 2024—immediately after Alexander Lukashenko returned from Russia, where he had met with Vladimir Putin—sparked various conspiracy theories.
In any case, it appears that Muraveiko’s appointment as Chief of the General Staff took place in a rush. Why did this particular military officer’s career take off precisely at the moment when an urgent replacement for Gulevich was needed, and why did Lukashenko choose him specifically?
Muraveyko’s Controversial Statements
All independent media outlets have noted that Pavel Muraveyko is known for his controversial statements. For example, he said that Belarus has the right to forcibly cut a corridor through Lithuania to the sea, hinted at the possibility of breaking through the Suwalki Corridor, threatened neighboring countries with nuclear weapons, accused the West of preparing for war, and so on.
These statements created an image of Muraveiko as a radical, a “hawk,” and a man of extreme views. Overall, he conducted himself as a political figure and public politician. Perhaps his initial military training played a role here. He graduated from the Minsk Military-Political School, which trained political officers.
However, it is worth noting that Muraveiko made his controversial statements while serving as Deputy Secretary of the Security Council. But once he became Chief of the General Staff, he suddenly fell silent. Therefore, it can be said that his radicalism was not so much a demonstration of an ideological and political stance as a means of attaining high office and advancing his career.
He understood very well that Lukashenko likes officials who rush ahead of the train in carrying out his orders—and even his intentions—and who can guess his hidden moods and subconscious thoughts. And to curry favor and become a high-ranking official, one must loudly proclaim what the leader merely hints at. Officials and propagandists who denounce Lukashenko’s enemies more vehemently than others and extol his wise policies are in his good graces. And Muraveiko really wanted to advance his career and made no secret of it.
Distrust and Additional Oversight
What is the point of this personnel appointment, and what problems does Lukashenko hope to solve? First and foremost, it demonstrates his total distrust of those around him, including the security forces. In deciding to appoint a new deputy head of the administration, Lukashenko noted that no one had recommended Muraveyko for the position; it was his personal proposal and decision, one that came as a partial surprise to both the current administration leadership and the State Secretariat of the Security Council.
It is worth recalling that last year, Alexander Lukashenko expressed dissatisfaction with the personnel proposals made by the head of the administration Dmitry Krutoy, and even suggested creating a commission to select officials for key positions. I would also like to remind you that the readiness inspection of military units was conducted without consulting the military leadership.
Lukashenko trusts no one. This has been evident before. But the period of “late autocracy” is exacerbating this problem. Speaking at a forum during the National Unity Day celebrations, Lukashenko stated that he sees no one to whom power could be entrusted. Such is the heavy burden of an irreplaceable leader.
So, total distrust can be offset by total control. By appointing Muraveiko to a position that involves overseeing the military, Lukashenko is creating yet another layer of additional control over the security forces. And he makes no secret of it. In appointing Vladimir Belyi as the new Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Lukashenko noted that Belyi would be under constant scrutiny not only by the State Secretary of the Security Council but also by the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration.
However, the existence of numerous oversight bodies leads to overlapping functions among different agencies and duplication of authority. This does not make the state apparatus more effective. Oversight institutions lack legitimate procedures for self-regulation; they carry out only the personal orders of the ruler. In fact, they are created precisely to strengthen his power.