The Dollar's Peak: What Lies Ahead For Belarusians
- 7.09.2026, 9:04
Over the past year, the U.S. dollar has risen by nearly 6%.
The first week of September has come to an end, with the U.S. dollar exchange rate on the Belarusian foreign exchange market rising by +1.17% to USD/BYN 3.0753. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has risen by nearly 6%, with a gain of 5.95% at the close of Friday’s trading on the Belarusian Stock Exchange (BVFB). The trading volume of the dollar on the Belarusian market totaled $69.177 million, which is in line with the average figures for the past three years. What exchange rates can we expect in the second week of September? myfin.by reported financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
Peak trading volume for the Russian ruble
The Russian ruble’s exchange rate also rose over the course of the week, but the main change occurred on the last trading day, Friday, September 4. Over the course of the week, the ruble’s exchange rate rose by +0.11%; however, the year-to-date change remains negative for the Russian currency at -4.06%. The RUB/BYN closing rate for the week was 3.5661 per 100 Russian rubles. The trading volume of the ruble on the Belarusian Stock Exchange for the week totaled 26,283.770 million Russian rubles, which is close to the highest volumes of the current year.
Thursday and Friday were the most active trading days of the past week. On Thursday, September 3, the Russian Ministry of Finance took an unexpected step when it announced a significant reduction in the volume of foreign currency purchases on the over-the-counter market, from the current 5.9 billion rubles to 1.9 billion rubles. In addition, the Ministry of Finance placed 1 trillion rubles worth of OFZ bonds on the debt market, which also significantly supported demand for ruble liquidity. All of this led to the dollar exchange rate on the Russian market falling from its weekly high of USD/RUB 87.475 to 85.825, with the prospect of further correction.
In addition, the Russian financial market is expected to receive additional foreign currency from high oil prices in August, combined with a narrowing of the spread between the benchmark Brent grade and the Russian Urals grade.
Once again, signs of a geopolitical resolution have appeared on the financial horizon amid visits to Moscow and Kyiv by U.S. special envoys. Of course, there is no talk yet of any specific agreements or steps in this regard, but the very fact of movement in this direction may instill a certain degree of optimism in the financial market.
The dollar strengthens on the back of strong economic data
In addition, at the end of last week, the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data was released in the U.S. The key indicators in the data set came in positive territory, leading to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major financial assets.
The price of gold briefly fell to 4,425.8 USD/oz, while the major currency pair EUR/USD dropped to 1.1595. By the close of Friday’s trading, the decline in major assets had corrected, but the trend toward a stronger dollar remains ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting (scheduled for the middle of next week). Prior to that, U.S. inflation data will be released on Friday, September 11, which will ultimately shape the U.S. regulator’s view on the current interest rate. For now, there remains a chance that the Fed may opt for a minimal rate hike.
Weekly Forecast
In the meantime, on the domestic Belarusian market, we can expect a moderate decline in the dollar exchange rate and a strengthening of the ruble. By the end of the week, the dollar could fall to USD/BYN 3.035, while the Russian ruble is expected to rise to RUB/BYN 3.585 per 100 Russian rubles.