Nasha Niva: How Was the First Day of the Announced Strike and What to Expect Next
- 2.11.2021, 10:38
Opinions of political leaders and experts.
At the beginning of November, the Belarusian Workers' Association announced the start of a nationwide strike. Nasha Niva asked the leader of the association Siarhei Dyleuski, Andrei Sannikau, who supported the strike, and political scientist Valery Karbalevich about what came of it.
In the comment to Nasha Niva, Andrei Sannikau told the background. According to him, as soon as the idea of the strike was announced, he had several meetings with the headquarters of Tsikhanouskaya and Babaryka, as well as representatives of the NAU.
"I immediately supported the initiative of Siarhei Dyleuski, as I believe that this is a very important phenomenon. We need an element of the labor force in Belarus, which has almost disappeared under pressure.
And the fact that there is an attempt to organize workers, which may arise as a separate strong group in Belarus, can only be welcomed. I told the headquarters and activists that I considered this action very useful for the situation in Belarus and asked: if there is no agreement immediately, there should be no counteractions. Everyone agreed.
Siarhei Dyleuski is a true leader who cares about the rights of workers. But those people who say that they are not yet prepared for the strike - I have no confidence in them," Andrei Sannikau said.
As an alternative to the strike, the initiative of the People's Quarantine was proposed - the self-preservation of Belarusians in a dramatic situation with coronavirus (to stay at home to save their health if the authorities do not take sufficient measures to counteract the pandemic).
As a result, on the eve of the strike he announced, Siarhei Dyleuski himself offered a compromise in his appeal to the democratic forces and assets:
"If for any reason you consider it impossible to support the start of a nationwide strike, call this event whatever you want — a strike, self-isolation, or people's quarantine - and support the people of Belarus!"
What is the result?
Siarhei Dyleuski himself believes that the first day went even better than they had planned.
"As of the 16th hour, Minsk time, about 20 thousand people who stayed at home wrote to the bot of the Belarusian Workers' Association. These are people from various enterprises, students, representatives of private business. We cannot disclose details for security reasons."
How were the messages verified in the bot? According to Siarhei Dyleuski, through activists in Belarus, photos that were taken from home (including with work documents). There were a lot of fake messages among those sent.
"Now the initial flaw of our team is already obvious: it was necessary to pay more attention to the information that is sent to us, to filter out lies, fakes from government agencies.
But in general, the percentage of confirmed statements about the strike was about 75-80%. We know that at the Minsk Tractor Plant in some workshops, from 600-700 full-time employees, 200 to 250 were not at the workplace; at the first mine management of Belaruskali, about a third of the employees were not at the lifting site for various reasons, at the Minsk Automobile Plant, people also did not come to work in some workshops.
During the day, "ideological studies" were carried out at several enterprises, where ideologists told workers about the strike that had begun in the country."
Siarhei Dyleuski also finds the results of the first day positive.
"After 25 years of pressure on independent trade unions and workers, it is impossible to expect that everything will recover immediately and that factories will become idle en masse. People have shown special courage, I welcome it, and I think they deserve respect.
This is just the beginning of the formation of a strong workforce. My colleagues and I adhere to three steps that will solve the situation in Belarus and lead to changes: strikes, protests, and international sanctions. And we are doing everything to support it."
What will happen next?
Siarhei Dyleuski promises that the workers' association will not stop working until the main requirements are met. Among them are the cessation of political repression, the beginning of negotiations on the peaceful transfer of power to democratic forces, and respect for the constitutional rights of citizens.
"We will demand from independent media, initiatives, and leaders to support Belarusians, monitor the situation, and not prevent Belarusian society from building a new Belarus," Dyleuski clarifies the action plan.
He does not rule out joining with other dem forces in actions, including coordination with other initiatives of the labor movement.
"I repeat once again: there is no difference whether you support a strike, a people's quarantine, or a lockdown. It is important that you support the people of Belarus and urge them to stay at home and save their lives and health. The only thing I can say for sure is that six months have passed since the foundation of the Belarusian Workers' Association, and we had enough time to prepare for the strike as much as possible."
What do political scientists say?
From the point of view of political scientist Valery Karbalevich, the task of organizing a nationwide strike in today's conditions was unrealistic:
"A strike can occur in conditions of a nationwide upsurge, a protest movement, when society is highly politicized. This was observed somewhere in the second half of August and at the beginning of September last year. Then, theoretically, a strike could happen. And today, with the decline of protest, a certain depoliticization of society, with mass repression and political migration, we cannot count on a mass strike.
This appeal will not work for industrial enterprises: in the Belarusian protest, workers were not the main driving force. It was the middle class, IT specialists, people working in non-governmental institutions. Remember the people's strike announced by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on October 26 last year: at that time, mainly private companies, service services, catering establishments suspended work."
According to Karbalevich, a mass strike is possible as a result of a new protest explosion.
"Strikes, like revolutions, do not take place on the orders of politicians or political centers. This happens as a result of some combination of circumstances, but it is quite rare."