Boryslav Bereza: Ukraine Has Several Interesting Formats Of Responding To Lukashenka's Threat

• 24.10.2022, 15:35

Among them is a preemptive strike.

Boryslav Bereza, co-founder and former head of the information department of the Right Sector party, ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and member of the Ukrainian delegation to PACE, told the Charter97.org website how the joint grouping of Russian-Belarusian troops could be used, as well as about the possible strategy of the Ukrainian authorities towards Belarus.

— Why did Putin declare the so-called martial law in the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine?

— In fact, this is an attempt to partially shift the blame on the local authorities, and mask what is happening. Putin cannot declare martial law in the Russian Federation, because then certain things must be prescribed, within the framework of which he must declare war against Ukraine. But he cannot do this, because it will be a blow to his ego, an admission that the so-called special military operation is a scam that did not go according to plan. And most importantly, war implies some kind of active offensive actions. And what can Putin do now? His army has been crushed in Ukraine by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, his advanced equipment has either been captured by the Ukrainian military or destroyed, his military-industrial complex is in a deplorable state as a result of sanctions and cannot quickly replenish the arsenal of everything necessary. What remains is the format of the use of nuclear weapons and the use of millions of infantrymen, with whom he is going to overwhelm the Ukrainian army. But this is not an option, so Putin will not declare war.

In addition, we must pay attention to the interesting trick that he did. The announced partial mobilization remains in place, but only earlier it was “Putin's mobilization”, and now it will be mobilization at the level of governors, because power has been transferred to them. The governors take on all the negativity. Therefore, we are now witnessing a hybrid form of an attempt to remove all negativity from Putin and spread it to various personalities, for example, Surovikin for military mistakes, Medvedev for problems within the country, Lavrov for external problems, and the governors will bear the blame for mobilization and deterioration of the life of Russians. Therefore, what we see is nothing more than a scheme of an attempt to evade responsibility, an opportunity to transfer all the negativity for everything that happens to anyone, but to remove it from Putin.

— How can the emerging joint grouping of troops of the Russian Federation and Belarus be used?

— It is used to keep certain units of the Ukrainian army on the border with Belarus and prevent them from being transferred as a reserve to the Donbas to accelerate the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, some ridiculous gestures can be made with an attempt to capture a couple of villages in the Chernihiv region, which will end in defeat, and a large number of corpses on the Belarusian side.

You can also say that some Belarusians will change into Russian uniforms in order to remove responsibility from Lukashenka. But that won't help. The fact is that there is a rather serious grouping in those directions, the approaches are mined. It's not February anymore, now the situation is completely different.

Let's also speak frankly: Belarusians are not motivated to fight against Ukrainians, they are not imperial chauvinists, they do not have the principle “we can repeat it”. Belarusians still have the old principle “as long as there is no war”, the majority have no desire to fight. There are some outcasts or scoundrels who do not care whom to kill: Belarusians, Ukrainians, Russians, Chinese, or Poles. They are villains, but they are rare.

Also, one should not forget that the use of Lukashenka's army will lead to a worsening of the situation with his position in Belarus itself. For him, the most important thing is to stay in power. An attempt to launch a military operation or a war, any option, will lead to mass funerals for Belarusian families, and this can undermine the social contract that exists in Belarus between the authorities and the people. This will definitely lead to the removal of Lukashenka, quite possibly by force, from power.

— Can the Russian military men who arrived in Belarus be used to put pressure on Lukashenka?

— They can be used indeed, but the result will remain the same. The only thing Putin can try is to remove Lukashenka from power himself and appoint some kind of puppet in his place. This form is also possible, but any puppet that comes to power instead of Lukashenka will be aware of their prospects. It will also be an illegitimate story.

There are several interesting formats for Ukraine's response to Lukashenka's threat. If we see that a shock fist is going, then no one forbids a preemptive strike against this grouping. Again, I say, now is not February of this year, now is October.

In November, we can also deliver a preventive strike — we have artillery, we have enough Himars, we also have the possibility of mass destruction of a group of troops that will try to invade the territory of Ukraine.

Besides, no one should forget that the Polish authorities can provide Ukraine with the opportunity to deploy some part of the contingent from Poland. And then it will be a slightly different story for Belarus. Perhaps this is what will launch the process of a change of power in Belarus, if the attack of the Belarusian troops occurs.

— Today Ukraine is rethinking its relations with Belarus. Contacts began with the Kalinouski regiment. What do you think should be the strategy of the Ukrainian authorities when it comes to Belarus?

— First of all, it is necessary to stop communication with the Belarusian authorities. Interaction with leaders of public opinion and law enforcement agencies who are ready to change power in Belarus should be strengthened, Ukraine should provide them with all possible support in this.

The change of power in Belarus can take place only with the active participation of the Belarusian people themselves. There is a saying: “You cannot want to be a king more than the king himself”. You can't want to be a free Belarusian more than the Belarusians themselves. Only Belarusians can initiate a change of power, only Belarusians can start all these processes, and only Belarusians are obliged to choose a new government for themselves. No one has the right to impose on them or appoint anyone, neither the Russians nor anyone else. Therefore, Belarusians can initiate a change of power, and Ukraine should support this. But there can be no continuation of relations with Lukashenka's regime at any level.