New Invasion From Belarus: What Putin & Lukashenka Troops Are Capable Of
- 22.12.2022, 11:55
There are two options.
On Tuesday, information appeared that Russia was transferring tanks, trucks and personnel of the RF Armed Forces to the south of Belarus. These are, in particular, the mobilized, who underwent training and combat coordination at the Belarusian training grounds. Immediately, talk began about a new offensive by the invaders from the north. But the Russians will not be able to recreate the strike force that advanced on the capital of Ukraine from the north on February 24. However, Ukraine needs to prepare for a new possible invasion from Belarus. This opinion was expressed on the air of Apostrophe TV by a retired lieutenant colonel, an expert in armored vehicles Mykola Salamakha.
The equipment that the Russians transferred a month or two ago to the Belarusian training grounds for training the mobilized, for combat coordination of their own units, that is, 2 divisions of the 1st tank brigade — it has fulfilled its role. Passed basic training, coordination of crews, platoons, and, possibly, companies. And now it makes sense to move this understaffed equipment closer to possible areas of use, namely, to the border of Belarus with Ukraine.
What will happen next? It will depend on Putin's decision.
The first option is to carry out a strike as part of the combined forces of one, two or three divisions of the Russian Federation and the combat-ready forces of the Belarusian army, and in this way they will recruit a maximum of 50 thousand personnel and up to one and a half thousand armored vehicles that will support the aviation grouping, artillery and missile troops of Russia and Belarus.
The second option is that within one and a half to two months, the forces of the RF Armed Forces will be transferred to Belarus in order to increase their power, and then they will be able to perform wider tasks. For now, we can just observe the development of the situation, and adequately respond.
Russia will no longer be able to create the strike force that entered the territory of Ukraine on February 24 — due to a lack of equipment, especially modern equipment. This applies to tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and other things. They no longer have the amount of ammunition that they had on the eve of the offensive, including precision weapons. They do not have that number of attack helicopters and front-line aviation, because they suffered quite sensitive losses.
But they were able to replenish the number of personnel they had with mobilized freshmen. Yes, they do not have the numbers of junior and middle officers that are needed to lead subunits and units in the course of hostilities. But it must be borne in mind that those who fought from the very beginning, who survived, will be the basis of very many divisions and units. Since they have combat experience, it is very dangerous to underestimate the situation. Therefore, we need to prepare for new battles with a trained enemy, and defeat them.