Viktor Shenderovich: Next Time, Belarusians Will Not Take Off Their Shoes When They Stand On Benches
- 12.06.2022, 12:34
They'll have to act differently.
If the Belarusian revolution were to win, could Russia's war against Ukraine be avoided? Russian publicist Viktor Shenderovich answered these and other questions to Radio Svaboda:
- Perhaps there would still be a war. Isolation would certainly ensure Putin's furious behaviour. As for the lessons, next time the Belarusians will certainly not take off their shoes when they stand on the benches, they will act differently when the next wave comes. Unfortunately, the Belarusian experience, like the Russian experience of Bolotnaia, confirms the conclusion that peaceful change is possible where there is at least some kind of feedback. When a million people took to the streets in Prague in 1989, it meant a change of power. In the case of Russia and Belarus with tyrants who cannot get away from power, unfortunately, peaceful protest simply loses its power and repressions begin. Probably, the next time both in Belarus and in Russia everything will not be so peaceful, but maybe more effectively.
- You must understand that the metaphor of shoes taken off is only one of the images of the revolution in Belarus, and the Belarusian revolution should not be estimated only from the point of view of balloons and flowers, it was different...
— Sure. There is no irony here. I am one of those people who take off their shoes before stepping on the bench. I am one of those people who take off their shoes before stepping on the bench. But this requires some tools. If there are none, if society is divided as in Belarus, into executioners and victims, peaceful protest will not win. The Czech communists understood the million-strong rally as a signal to leave, but Lukashenka does not understand a peaceful exit signal, he understands only force.
- What will happen to Russia after the war?
- It depends on when and how the war will end. It is clear that nothing good will happen. It is hard to say whether it will follow the German example with shame and disgrace for decades to come, reparations, economic ruin, the Marshall Plan. The Marshall Plan is preceded by surrender. It is also possible that something will change inside, and Russia will change course and will make an attempt to return back everything stolen along with a huge historical work designed for decades in order to realize and correct mistakes, as in Germany. Then it will receive a chance to return to civilization in a few decades. If Russia insists on its special imperial path, on blood, on isolation, on imperial wars, this means that it will collapse in a couple of decades.
- What will happen to Belarus after the war?
- Belarus and Lukashenka are tightly tied to Putin's Russia, chained together. The fate of Lukashenka directly depends on the result of this war.
- What will happen to Ukraine after the war?
- Everything will be fine with Ukraine after the war.