Offensive From Belarus: Military Expert Analyzes Three ISW Scenarios
- 16.01.2023, 18:55
There are two bridgeheads dangerous for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that Russia is launching a decisive offensive action. Three scenarios are described: a major offensive by the Russian Federation in the Luhansk region, a defensive operation by Russia to defeat and assume a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and a repeated attack from Belarus.
Charter97.org asked Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko to analyze each scenario:
— Considering these three scenarios, I want to immediately dismiss the probability of entry from Belarus. To date, there are no signs of the formation of a strike force on Belarusian territory.
A full-fledged strike group can be formed in Belarus only in 3-4 months, if this process starts tomorrow.
If this period is exceeded, we can say that a real threat under special scenarios from Belarus may arise by the end of May - beginning of June, but not earlier.
As for other options, it is true that at the Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia bridgeheads we can currently observe the accumulation of forces and means of the occupiers.
If we talk about the Zaporizhzhia bridgehead, then this is the Vasylivka-Tokmak-Melitopol triangle. If we talk about Luhansk, this is the sector from Starobilsk to Svatove, as well as the Svatove-Kreminna location.
Both of these bridgeheads can be used by the Russian occupiers for the implementation of any offensive operations.
The fact is that they have been imitating offensive operations in these places for several months now. Just imitate — they accumulate forces, means and constantly control them in some kind of assault actions in locations under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They were not successful in this.
If we talk about the Luhansk region, then there have even been cases of losing control over a number of populated areas, and a decrease in the zone of control of the Russian Federation. In terms of potential, they have a rather dubious resource.
If we are talking about an offensive beforehand, then for this they need not only the corresponding quantitative resource of forces and means, but also the support of artillery. For them, artillery and providing it with the necessary ammunition is also a problem. No offensive is possible without artillery.
Of course, they can nurture some plans, but I have doubts about the effectiveness of their implementation. If it is inefficient to carry out offensive actions, then they may end negatively for the Russian occupation forces themselves.
On the offensive, they will waste a resource that they could not have used on the defensive. Then the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can become critical for them. Both in Zaporizhzhia and in the Luhansk region, it is precisely the process of counteroffensive that can end with the liberation of thousands of square kilometers of territories, and also with a demonstrative“goodwill gesture” on the part of the Russian occupation forces.