When And Where Can Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Begin?
- 5.04.2023, 13:40
Top scenarios from Western media and experts.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky made a statement about the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, warning the Russian military that if they did not leave the country, they would be destroyed.
“We will do it and they need to know it. They still have time to get out of there, otherwise we will destroy them,” the President of Ukraine said.
When and where can the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine begin? The website Charter97.org has collected the main information at the moment.
What do the Ukrainian authorities say?
The only representative of the Ukrainian authorities who named the timing of the start of the counteroffensive was Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. He was asked when it would be possible to see the Leopard tanks transferred from the allies at the front.
“It depends on what moment is the most appropriate, how they decide. It also depends on weather conditions. In spring, our land is very wet. Only tracked vehicles can be used. I think we will see them in April-May, ” Reznikov hinted about the timing of the counteroffensive in an interview with the Estonian media ERR.
Another clear sign that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the start of a counteroffensive is the statement by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk. She called on Ukrainians to leave the occupied territories.
“I advise Ukrainians to either temporarily leave for third countries or prepare: you know what to do. The main thing is to take care of yourself and your children.
The occupation officials still have a little time to get out of there. Some of them are already packing their things. It would be nice if they took collaborators with them. But, let’s see how it turns out,” Vereshchuk said.
The Ukrainian minister made such statements on the eve of the liberation of the Kharkiv region and the right bank of the Kherson region.
Forecasts from Western media and experts
Forbes writes that the Ukrainian counteroffensive could start with a massive drone attack. Allegedly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing an attack involving 50,000 UAVs.
Ukraine, as the newspaper writes, bought all the components available on the market in China for relatively inexpensive FPV racing drones equipped with video cameras (“according to indirect estimates, 50-100 thousand units”).
These drones are smaller in size than standard quadcopters, but are equipped with powerful engines that allow the lightweight drone to reach speeds of up to 200 km/h.
It is enough to attach a grenade to it — and the drone can be used as a radio-controlled kamikaze robot, which is able to quite accurately hit targets at a relatively large distance from the operator controlling it via a video link.
A raid of 50,000 drones, the newspaper notes, could make an attack of unprecedented proportions. Considering that racing drones are very resistant to radio interference, it will not be possible to stop them with ordinary “jammers”.
The American daily newspaper The New York Times writes that Ukraine is capable of inflicting losses on the Russian army, which could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, if it gets weapons and prepares troops in time.
“Ukraine can make Russia a weakened military force in Eastern Europe with little leverage in negotiations to end the war,” Evelyn Farkas, director of the McCain Institute, told the publication.
The publication writes that Ukraine will strike in the south.
A strike of about 80 km across the steppe from the current front line to the occupied city of Melitopol will divide Russian-held territory into two zones, cut supply lines and put Ukrainian artillery within range of Russian bases in the Crimea.
The American television channel CNN also believes that the goal of Ukraine's counteroffensive this spring in any case will be to stop the land communication of the Crimea with Russia. The publication writes about this with a reference to information from Ukrainian intelligence.
The blows will be inflicted on Melitopol, in the areas of the Kherson region adjacent to the Crimea.
It is for this reason, as noted by the media, that the Russian authorities are actively strengthening the Crimea.
Former commander of U.S. forces in Europe, retired General Ben Hodges believes that Ukraine's priority is to strike to isolate the Crimea, as well as to seize the Black Sea Fleet.
Hodges pointed out that it is important to make the peninsula unsuitable for the troops of the RF Armed Forces. The general also published a rough plan for the de-occupation of the peninsula.
What do Ukrainian experts say about the counteroffensive?
Major of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hetman also believes that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin in the south.
The Ukrainian officer says he came to this conclusion given the heavy military equipment Ukraine receives from Western allies. After all, the most convenient for such equipment is not forests or residential buildings, but open areas. That is why Hetman believes that the machinery is intended for the southern direction — the Kherson steppes.
He predicts that the timing of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be when the soil dries up — in late spring or early June.
Military instructor, pilot, colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve, military expert Roman Svitan believes that before the attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine will work behind enemy lines.
“For several days before the offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will work on the rear of the Russians with long-range systems. There are massive attacks on the Russian rear with drones, M31 missiles guided by JDAM-ER bombs,” Svitan said.
“In the next few weeks, we will start burning the Russian rear. After that, artillery will join in to carry out the so-called barrage of fire. The movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin in those directions that are determined by our command. The week we entered will be a turning point,” Svitan emphasized.
What do Russian propagandists say about the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
A sad forecast for the occupiers regarding the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was given by the Russian reserve colonel, military observer Mikhail Khodarenok on the air of RosTV.
“As for the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive, which has been talked about so much lately… Well, what can I say? Firstly, a significant part of the expert community tends to reduce this problem to Leopards ... In fact, everything is much more complicated ... The main volume of fire missions in the upcoming offensive operation will be solved by rocket troops and artillery, that is, HIMARS , M142, M270... Apparently, they have already prepared a lot of them, it seems so to me due to some reason,” Khodarenok said.
“It's still worrisome. We are waiting for their (Ukrainian — edit.) counteroffensive. No irony needed. Serious equipment is coming from the other side, there is a lot of it, the Ukrainian troops are preparing seriously. We have to wait and be ready,” said Vladimir Solovyov, another top Russian propagandist.