Natallia Radzina: Belarusian Officials Understand That Regime Has No Chance To Survive

• 18.05.2023, 14:52

Ukraine's victory will be the catalyst.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website, became a guest on the YouTube channel of the prominent journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov. The main topic of the conversation was the disappearance of Lukashenka.

Belarusian journalist does not believe that the dictator is terminally ill:

– Lukashenka is not on his deathbed. His press service actually showed him. Yes, he looked like a wax figure from Madame Tussauds. It is obvious that he is seriously ill. A video appeared later, but it would really be better if they did not make it. His health problems became obvious. Lukashenka not only hardly speaks, but his breathing is also difficult. Previously, he was absent at quite a number of official events in Minsk. Also, we all saw that he could hardly move at the parade in Moscow on May 9. Physicians are wondering what might happen to the Belarusian dictator. Versions are very different, diagnoses are made according to simple examination. They say that covid, myocarditis, arthritis, intervertebral hernia or diabetes are likely. The list of diagnoses is very long.

However, as the editor-in-chief of the Charter97.org website notes, the news about the dictator's illness made Belarusians happy:

– Almost all the people are waiting for Lukashenkas’s death because they hate the dictator. His absence for ten days caused euphoria and expectation: “Is he finally going to leave our lives!? Unfortunately, it did not happen. I think that Lukashenka is seriously ill, but this is not some kind of fatal disease. We still have a serious fight with this dictator.

This is a personalistic regime and it will be collapsing. The regime will not collapse as quickly as we would like. If there was no war in Ukraine, then yes, I suppose that two million Belarusians would take to the streets to celebrate the death of the dictator with champagne, and this would lead to the inevitable coming of democratic forces to power in the country.

Natallia Radzina urges not to believe the ideas that Lukashenka has some kind of subjectivity:

– The ideas that relations between Putin and Lukashenka are complicated and that they cannot stand each other has been going on since even 2000 when Putin came to power. In fact, 2020 and 2022 showed that everything is fine in their relationship. In 2020, it was Putin who supported Lukashenka when he lost the elections. He retained power thanks to the support of the Kremlin. Lukashenka paid him off with full support during the war against Ukraine in 2022.

I do not believe that Lukashenka is somehow preventing Putin from launching missile strikes from Belarus today. I think there is no urgent need for this, there is no need to involve the Belarusian army because it has 15,000-17,000 combat-ready troops. It won’t be able to seriously change the situation at the front. There is enough Russian "meat" so far.

As for missile attacks, they are still doing it. Recently, the State Border Committee of Ukraine stated that the Shahed drones continue to come from the territory of Belarus to the Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne and Kyiv regions. And missile attacks are likely to be continued at any moment. After all, they did not end in September-October of this year, as stated.

For example, there is a recent scandal in Poland: a Russian missile fell near the city of Bydgoszcz. It was found only four months later. It turned out that it was launched from the territory of Belarus. Moreover, I read foreign media reports, for example, BBC reported that missile attacks on Ukraine continued from the territory of Belarus in December.

I cannot understand why Ukraine and the NATO member states did not react in the most tough way, in fact, this is a violation of the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty. Then the question is: why is there no reaction? It is necessary to initiate the Security Council meeting and discuss this issue. Lukashenka's dictatorship is a serious threat to the security of the region today.

The Editor-in-Chief of the website Charter97.org draws attention to the fact that China can prevent Putin from using the Belarusian army in the war against Ukraine:

– We know that they bypass sanctions. Oil products go through Russia. Belarusian potash is also resold. Unfortunately, there are many loopholes for bypassing sanctions. Returning to the subject, it's beneficial for Putin to have no shelling from the territory of Belarus and keep the Belarusian army away from the war. That’s the reason. They are bypassing economic sanctions through Belarus. The European Union will close its border in case of massive missile attacks or the Belarusian army enters the war. Transport routes will just be blocked but these routes are necessary not only for Russia but also for China. After all, Chinese goods go by land through the territory of Belarus. Even stronger sanctions are not profitable for them In this situation, not to mention the closure of borders with the European Union.

Is there any discontent among Belarusian officials? Natallia Radzina believes that the nomenclature understands that the Lukashenka regime has no chance to survive:

– All the people of good judgment who have stayed in the Belarusian government are dissatisfied. I am talking about those who are able to calculate the development of the situation several steps ahead. They understand that the regimes of Putin and Lukashenka are dead ends. These are the regimes that unleashed the war against Ukraine, and the whole world is fighting against them nowadays. Of course, they have no chance to survive. We can guess how long the war will last: a year, a year and a half, but we definitely know that this war will end with the victory of Ukraine and the fall of the Putin and Lukashenka regimes.

Belarusian officials, of course, understand this, but fear paralyzed them. The level of repression in the country is immense. Not only politically active citizens are arrested and imprisoned in the country. There are repressions against various segments of the population including the officials of the Lukashenka regime. Another thing is that we cannot say exactly how many of them ended up in prison because their relatives are afraid and do not inform human rights organizations about the arrests. However, we learn from political prisoners who are being held in Belarusian prisons that there are a lot of officials there.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website expressed the opinion that the most effective method to liberate Belarus is a military one:

– We have been saying for a long time, especially when there was intense shelling of Ukrainian cities from the territory of Belarus and when the Russian army used the territory of Belarus to enter Ukraine, that Ukraine needed to make retaliation strikes against military facilities in Belarus. If such strikes are inflicted on military targets and decision-making centers in Minsk, then this, of course, will make people rise. The Belarusian people will see that this regime can collapse.

Also, it is necessary to use moments of instability and think about whether we should liberate the territory of Belarus.

I read an interview with Azov commander Bohdan "Tavr" Krotevych. He said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine should enter Belarus during the period of instability. Perhaps it will be the death of Lukashenka or missile attacks from the territory of Belarus. He says that if you want to defeat the enemy, you need to defeat its allies. Here I agree with the Azov commander. You need to think about such scenarios because the military way is the most real way to change the situation in Belarus. By the way, Krotsevich said that ninety percent of the Belarusians would support the Armed Forces of Ukraine if such a scenario were implemented.

Natallia Radzina believes that hatred for the Lukashenka regime has not gone away:

– If they are spreading fear among the people with the repressions, then I am sure that this fear will transform into anger and rage. Because the situation in the country has really become insane. Also, not only repressions are going on but the economic situation is not the best either. It is getting worse due to the sanctions and the fact that Russia is also unable to fully feed its puppet. The economy is destroyed. A huge number of people left. Entire regions and entire spheres have been destroyed because specialists left. People are extremely dissatisfied.

Therefore, it needs a spark. And, of course, we wish victory to Ukraine. I am convinced that it will become a catalyst that will begin to destroy both the Lukashenka regime and the Putin regime.