The Story Of Lukashenka's Illness Will Not Pass Tracelessly

• VALER KARBALEVICH
• 22.05.2023, 11:44

The environment of the ruler will have to think about their own future.

As you know, history is modern politics in reverse. The appeal of the authorities to history is a way of legitimizing their current political course, which is highly dependent on the changing situation. The current turn of the ruling regime in the policy of historical memory is an excellent illustration of this thesis.

Head of the Lukashenka Administration Ihar Siarheyenka, in an interview with the Belarus Today newspaper (05/16/2023) stated that he does not consider Tadeusz Kosciuszko and Kastus Kalinouski to be national heroes of Belarus, like, they are Polish heroes. This statement is very significant. It well shows how in recent years the Belarusian elite has firmly entered the Russian ideological context and abandoned the national narrative in their approaches to their own history.

Until now, Kastus Kalinouski was perhaps the only Belarusian historical figure who did not cause any split in society, the political class. He was recognized by both nationalists and communists, because he entered the pantheon of Belarusian national heroes back in Soviet times. This symbol could unite the divided Belarusian nation. However, the authorities have made this historical figure a symbol of the split.

I want to remind you that in November 2019, a state delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Ihar Piatryshenka was sent to Vilnius to the ceremony of reburial of Kastus Kalinouski’s remains. At an official ceremony in the Lithuanian capital, he said that the activities of Kastus Kalinouski “are connected with the development of the Belarusian national-cultural movement into the struggle for Belarusian statehood in the form of democracy.” That is, there is no doubt that Kalinouski is a Belarusian, not a Polish hero.

Furthermore, it is getting even more interesting. Ihar Piatryshenka said: “It is significant that the password of the rebels of Kastus Kalinouski was the words “Who do you love? “I love Belarus.” The testaments of the fighters have not lost their relevance and have been continued in the main motto of our country: “For a strong and prosperous Belarus”. That is, translating into an understandable language, Lukashenka is the ideological heir of Kalinouski!

It is important to note that on November 17, 2019, Lukashenka, answering journalists’ questions about his attitude towards Kalinouski at the polling station, said: “He acted on our territory, he was our man, if you like, our citizen. And there's no getting away from it.”

And now Head of the Lukashenka Administration Ihar Siarheyenka actually disavowed Aliaksandr Lukashenka, arguing that Kalinouski was a Polish historical personality.

What happened? The political environment has changed. The ideological construct of the state is adjusted to the changing momentary needs of the ruling team, the tasks of its political survival.

It's not just about the sharply increased economic, political and military dependence of Belarus on Russia. It is important that the Belarusian elite lives in the ideological bubble of the “Russian world”, unable to single out their own Belarusian national interests, to separate them from Russian ones. The nomenklatura ruling here has lost not only political, but also national subjectivity. And this is very dangerous for the future of Belarus, especially against the backdrop of the hype around the topic of Lukashenka's health. After all, in a situation where the Belarusian elite lacks subjectivity, the role of such a subject can be assumed by Russia, and our fate will be determined in Moscow. After all, there is no vacuum either in nature or in politics. Someone has to fill the vacant niche. That is, in this case, the danger for the Belarusian sovereignty greatly increases.

A similar hypothesis is put forward by the director of the research program of the Finnish Institute of International Relations Arkady Moshes: “Since there are no obvious political groups claiming power inside Belarus after the thirty-year rule of Lukashenka, they are not structured, the struggle for Lukashenka’s legacy will take place not inside Minsk, not between regional Belarusian groupings, it will pass along the Moscow-Belarus line. The risk here lies in the fact that the Belarusian ruling elites are quite weak-willed, they are used to existing like this for more than a generation, it is more convenient for them to have a master. Therefore, they can quite easily switch to a new boss, who will be appointed from Moscow. Here we can draw a parallel with the change of loyalty of the administrative elites of the Crimea, when Russia came. That is, the absolute majority simply integrated into the new Russian vertical, some more successfully, some less.”

That is, the question of the prospects for power in Belarus in connection with the topic of Lukashenka's health is directly related to the problem of state sovereignty.

As for Lukashenka himself, it is very significant that against the backdrop of excitement in the independent media and the interest of the politicized public in his physical condition, on May 15 he hastened to show himself in public space, visited the command post of the air defense and air force forces. It was clear that his health problems remained. But he was forced to appear in front of television cameras without having recovered properly. For he considered that his appearance in not the best shape is a lesser evil than a long absence. What if someone takes advantage of the disease and tries to fill the vacancy? He is a suspicious person, like any authoritarian ruler.

Such is the hard fate of all dictators. They can't go and get normal treatment, fearing to leave their chair for a long time. It turns out that Lukashenka is not only the chief architect, but also a hostage, a victim of that political regime, of the system that he himself created.

However, be that as it may, the story of Lukashenka's illness will not pass tracelessly. The ruling elite received a signal, the meaning of which is that the current regime has limits to its existence, it is finite. Pro-government propagandist Aliaksandr Shpakouski articulated the problem very clearly on Facebook: “It is clear that the era of Lukashenka will end in the coming years.” All this makes the environment of the ruler at least think about their own future.

Valer Karbalevich, Svobodnye Novosti