'He Cancelled Everything And Flew Away': Why Putin Needs Lukashenka On Red Square

• 8.05.2023, 13:09

Opinion of a former employee of Lukashenka's administration.

Belarusian Telegram channels write that Putin has summoned Lukashenka to the parade in Moscow. The dictator will not attend the laying of flowers and congratulations to veterans in Victory Square on the morning of May 9 in Minsk.

Why does Putin need the Belarusian dictator on Red Square?

Charter97.org spoke about this with former employee of Lukashenka's administration Anatoly Kotau, who joined the Belarusian people in 2020.

- Putin needs not only the Belarusian dictator; he has to demonstrate that at least someone is coming. To be alone in a practically empty square on a day that has been turned into a cult of "victory" is quite sad. So the Kremlin has started to actively invite people. President of Kyrgyzstan earlier confirmed his visit, now there is information that Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are being invited. And, of course, if these ones are to come, the absence of "the main ally" will be extremely sad. The most important thing here is to show that at least someone is celebrating together with Putin, that he is not alone.

- Does Lukashenka want to go to Moscow?

- I think every trip to Moscow is stressful for him anyway. He has unpleasant conversations behind closed doors there. But if Lukashenka were to go to the Kremlin alone, he would still be afraid. As it is, there would be several presidents, who, so to speak, would be under some kind of protection from drones. I do not think that Lukashenka rushes to go there. He used to go there regularly only on anniversary dates with very short visits; he was always motivated to celebrate in Minsk. But this year, Minsk has cancelled all the events. It is not a pleasant invitation, it is one that cannot be turned down.

- Lukashenka has recently been clearly trying to distance himself from Putin. There was his statement that "no one is going to attack Belarus," and his silence after the drone attack, and the checkpoint on the border with Russia. Will Lukashenka manage to "crawl back" and does Putin want to "cover up" the Belarusian dictator?

- Definitely, Putin has a desire to discredit Lukashenka so that he could not escape. In fact, apart from participation in the ground operation, he got everything he wanted from Lukashenka: logistics, territory, enterprises. Should the Belarusian armed forces be used directly? Probably, the Kremlin estimates it is not the right time yet, especially as they are not much more useful than the Russian mobilized forces.

Lukashenka is playing distancing. It's an attempt to prove that he still retains some degree of independence in politics. The fact that no one is going to attack Belarus is the first time in several years that he has voiced the thesis as Captain Obvious. Nobody was ever going to do that, such fantasies came only in his inflamed mind.

The checkpoints on the border are not a sign of distancing from the Russian Federation either. Nobody really knows their real purpose. The version voiced that it is "allegedly to prevent illegal migration under conditions of mutual recognition of visas" is absurd. The checkpoints were valid when visas were not recognised then, not the other way around. It is quite possible that this is related to some more serious mobilisation activities that will take place in Russia.

All this is a a gallery play and a demonstration that he is still deciding something, that he has not finally swallowed by the Kremlin. However, Moscow invited him on May 9, he cancelled everything in Minsk and flew to Moscow.

- It turns out that one cannot speak about any real independence of Lukashenka?

- Absolutely. He has little room for bargaining; the main thing is to retain his position as the ruler of Belarus for a longer period of time.