Andrei Sannikov: Lukashenka Won't Last Long

• 8.05.2023, 14:24

Today we need to talk about the future relationship between Belarus and Ukraine.

The leader of the European Belarus Сivil Сampaign gave a long interview to Zakhidny Front, a Ukrainian news publisher. The conversation touched upon the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, the situation with political prisoners and future relations between Kyiv and Minsk.

Regarding Nuclear Weapons, Belarus and No Reaction

– The Ukrainian audience is closely following the Belarusian opposition and the events in present-day Belarus. What is the best way to introduce you to our readers? What are your current activities?

– I am the head of the European Belarus Civil Campaign. This initiative started in 2008, and thanks to the initiative I became a presidential candidate. The goals of our campaign are clear: the integration of a free and democratic Belarus into the structures of the European Union and NATO. These are the goals that Ukraine is striving to achieve. I am in exile now. It is not an emigration but an exile. I had to leave in order to be able to work.

– Now the topic of nuclear weapons, which can be deployed on the territory of Belarus, has been raised again. What political consequences do you predict for Lukashenka and our entire region?

– I did my best to achieve the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus. I was the head of the delegation dealing with the issue of nuclear disarmament after the collapse of the USSR. Therefore, it is very unpleasant for me to hear the mentioned statements. Although, Lukashenka expressed regret over this loss even during the elimination of nuclear weapons.

I think that any statements by Putin and Lukashenka about nuclear weapons should be taken seriously. This threat cannot be ignored. The possibility of deploying nuclear weapons under Lukashenka still exists. Even now he allows the use of the country's territory for Moscow's military purposes. We saw it in February 2022. I don't understand why there hasn't been a tough reaction yet. There should be a reaction. How is it possible to betray the Budapest Memorandum again and again? Nothing happened when Crimea and Donbas were annexed, although the signatory states were obliged to call consultations. Let me remind you that the memorandum explicitly reads that the threats to use nuclear weapons oblige the signatory states to react.

– How tough should the reactions be and what does this toughness mean?

– First of all, the US and the UK should react. It is necessary to impose sanctions against Lukashenka - not only against Putin (for the third time in a row, Lukashenka has been excluded from the sanctions packages). The second aspect is to close the sky over Ukraine. Next, the laws of war must be applied, if the opposing side is going to escalate, there is a need for a correspondent answer.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to deliver a reaction inside Belarus today - civil society is in a concentration camp, inside which more than 5,000 people are under arrest (an average of two arrests of civilians daily). All real opposition leaders are in prisons where they are being killed. For example: Mikalai Statkevich and Palina Sharenda-Panasiuk. However, the majority of the Belarusians are certainly against nuclear weapons.

– You spoke about real Belarusian opposition representatives but did not tell about yourself as a politician in exile. What is the life of the Belarusian political emigration now, who is Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for you?

– I won't tell you about all the opposition activists who are in emigration and their life. As for me, I personally live along the events in Ukraine and the support of Ukraine. I am trying to support political prisoners in Belarus. There are individuals who call themselves "leaders of the new opposition" but for me, they are not. They are rather opportunists who created the regime. It's funny when among the self-proclaimed leaders of the opposition there are employees of punitive bodies who persecuted the opposition. Moreover, they threaten the oppositionists even in Poland.

– Could you please tell us more details?

– For example, Azarau from GUBOPiK. This is the Belarusian Gestapo, a punitive body. I don't understand how one can say that these people represent the interests of the Belarusians when they created the repressive apparatus for Lukashenka. I consider them to be others. Three years have passed since the beginning of the revolution in Belarus. Many people who call themselves leaders have done everything to avoid protests and timely sanctions, but time has been lost. I evaluate their activities quite harshly. I just refuse to trust them. I know that there will be no changes in Belarus with them.

– How do you feel about the Coordination Council?

– I don’t have anything to do with it – these are self-proclaimed bodies that do not represent anyone. They are playing games. They are in no way able to influence the situation in Belarus.

– What should the Belarusian opposition do to influence the situation in Belarus?

– Support political prisoners by all available means and support Ukraine and those who are fighting.

Political Prisoners, Lukashenka and the Opposition

– Do you believe that the experience of the war may become a unifying factor for the Belarusian opposition?

– I'd like to note that I have a completely different experience of political struggle. We have never aspired to a simple unification. We knew who our allies and supporters were, and we chose the most effective way of action. And then everyone else could join and they joined. There is a certain fog in their actions, falseness. All these figures are not interesting for Belarus because people are not just imprisoned in Belarus - they are being killed. This is what should be the main thing. Tsikhanouskaya has a bunch of high-level official meetings, but nothing has changed in the case of political prisoners. The Belarusian opposition has never treated political prisoners with such disdain.

– What is the explanation?

– It seems that they do not need it, they do not set such goals. The goal is to create a sect that will control the political agenda regarding Belarus abroad. There are no sanctions. The number of prisoners is growing. There are no results regarding the main areas, there is no even performance of a counterwork. Activity simulation continues.

– How do you feel about the possibility of negotiating the release of political prisoners with Lukashenka?

– There is such an experience, we can talk a lot, but there is the experience of releasing political prisoners thanks to sanctions. They are being released thanks to tough sanctions and thanks to softening of the sanctions. I will be more categorical, any softening of sanctions against Lukashenka helps Russia to wage the war against Ukraine. Sanctions should be directly related to the release of all political prisoners. If he releases all the prisoners, I will be the first to say: lift the sanctions. In general, not without the help of sanctions, the USSR collapsed and Eastern Europe was freed.

– You mentioned the Belarusians fighting on the side of Ukraine. Is the forceful scenario of a change of power in Belarus real?

– I am a supporter of non-violent resistance. There was a chance to change the power in August 2020. But the impostors did everything to preserve the situation. There is a war today, and at war as at war. Lukashenka on his own made the territory of Belarus a legitimate target for any military strikes by Ukraine. Accordingly, Lukashenka is intrusively creating the conditions for a forceful scenario. He is terrified of the Belarusian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine, in the Kalinouski Regiment and other units.

Ukraine Should Become a Regional State

– Who can represent the Belarusian opposition in a dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities? Is such a dialogue really necessary?

– It is ridiculous to hear reproaches and complaints about why official Kyiv does not want to meet Tsikhanouskaya! One gets the impression that this is the only thing missing to overthrow Lukashenka. What are the reasons for meeting her? Ukraine has decided on the main direction of its development after the victory - the European Union and NATO - and is actively working in this direction. On the other hand, the “new opposition” shudders at the word NATO and is very embarrassed when talking about Belarus' accession to the European Union.

Moreover, official Kyiv must decide why a high-level dialogue with the Belarusian opposition is needed at all. Previously, official Kyiv established relations with Lukashenka, and was very successful in this. The high-level officials must understand that without a democratic and free Belarus, Ukraine will never be safe. There will be another attack from the territory of Belarus if they leave it like this. You need to decide what the dialogue is for. I believe that it is necessary to have a dialogue in order to free the whole of Europe from dictatorship and the influence of dictators - not only Belarus, but also Moldova and the countries of the Caucasus. Ukraine must become a regional state today - this is necessary both for Ukraine and for the region. I am convinced that Ukraine should support the European path of Belarus. Unfortunately, we have been used as a negative example for a very long time.

– Let me clarify, how do you assess the feasibility and possibility of a defense alliance between Poland, Ukraine and Belarus?

– Is it about the Baltic-Black Sea Union? No, this is the past. The main and only current goal should be NATO. Let's join NATO, and then we can form "triangles", "squares" and everything else. The Baltic-Black Sea Union will be an incomprehensible and unnecessary formation - this is the past, it was relevant before Poland joined NATO. The ideas of NATO-bis are in the past. We must be members of a common European security system. Only this guarantees our security, moreover, it already guarantees it. I believe that NATO will be forced to help Ukraine on its territory, which will mark the end of the war.

– In your opinion, what awaits Belarus in the future, in a year or two?

– The overthrow of the Lukashenka regime. There will be a lot of work to reform both the economy and the political system. It will be a new quality, it will be work to create a new one.

The West and Russia

– I want to ask a few questions related to Russia. How could it happen that the Kremlin and Russian society find themselves in a similar historical situation, a spiral of self-repetition: the empire transformed into the Soviet Union, and Stalinism was reborn in Putinism? How to explain the constant restoration of imperialism, which is a threat to the neighbours and to Russia itself? And all this despite strong traditions of pacifism (Tolstoy), anti-imperialism and modernism or dissidence during the Soviet era (Sakharov).

– This is a very good question. We have already understood what Russia is, and we must fight against it and prevent it from restoring its military and totalitarian power. I have always said that Russia is also a center of power. Talk about Russia's accession to NATO or the EU, which was conducted in the 90s, it was odd. The Eastern Partnership was a mistake. The Eastern Partnership came after the annexation of 20% of the territory of Georgia, then there was an attack on Ukraine, an attempted coup in Moldova. It had to be taken into account that Russia would perceive the idea of the Eastern Partnership as a provocation. So it happened. It was possible to develop relations with Eastern Europe even without this project.

The West has failed to form its own strategy of action in our region. I call it the "Fukuyama Syndrome" - everyone decided that history is over and there will be peace. This will never happen with Russia, never, this state has not been reborn. Moreover, the West decided that it could solve the issues of democratization of Belarus and Ukraine through Moscow. Thus, they offended and humiliated us.

– I'd like to clarify, in your opinion, is the current democratic Russian opposition capable of changing Russia?

– The current opposition is not able to do it. I always say that in Russian politics there were three people at the national level who did not suffer from imperialistic ideas and never doubted that Belarus and Ukraine were independent states, but they were all killed. I am talking about Galina Starovoitova, Sergei Yushenkov and Boris Nemtsov.

It is difficult to see such leaders in the current opposition. Russia remains the center of power for many of them, because of this their "vanity" suffers and even those who are against the war are affected. Their ego suffers, “Putin offended the country”, but “it remains Great”! They may appear among those who have decided to help or are helping Ukraine first, and only then resolve their issues.

– How can the Belarusian opposition help Ukraine then? What are the key decisions the opposition must make?

– In addition to the financial assistance that is provided, it is quite significant, Belarusian non-governmental media continue their work. Thanks to them Putin's order to attack from the territory of Belarus was delayed. The media inform the Belarusians about the inadmissibility of the war of the Belarusian troops against Ukraine. I publicly and in various private conversations with politicians and analysts always emphasize that it is necessary to support Ukraine as much as possible. Neighbours are invited to events and asked, even Russians are asked, in order to better understand how to act in the current situation. We, the Belarusians, support any assistance to Ukraine, and the West takes this into account.

I believe that today it is necessary to speak and prepare for the first steps after the war, to form Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. Dialogue can be initiated at the expert level on an equal footing. And further joining the EU - Lukashenka won't last long.