Political scientist: The West and Ukraine Will Have Opportunity Resolve Issue With Lukashenka Regime Quickly

• 11.07.2023, 15:20

Two dictators got trapped on their own fault.

A two-day NATO Summit started today in Vilnius. What is the significance of the event for our region? What are the discussion topics? Charter97.org asked political scientist Anatol Kotau.

– It's an extremely important event for the region, and secondarily for Belarus. One of the most important decisions was actually made last night. In general, it was quite expected. This is the "green light" for Sweden to join the North Atlantic Alliance. For the region, this means that, despite some disagreements, NATO is a fairly unified military and political management. The Russian Federation has lost the Baltic Sea as some kind of operational space, because it has completely become a NATO inland sea with a small piece of coast that belongs to Russia. The value of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation is actually multiplied by zero, it won't be able to do anything.

Another important decision for the region, which is obvious, in general, and will be declared later, is a special system of guarantees for Ukraine. It was also announced yesterday. Joe Biden said that Ukraine would receive guarantees from the United States and, most likely, from NATO, similar to those that Israel received from the United States in its time.

In practice, this means that Ukraine cannot lose the war against Russia. If we look retrospectively at the implementation of guarantees for Israel, then since the 60s of the last century, regularly, once every 10-15 years, wars have arisen with superior opponents. It would seem that there is no chance against an armada attacking from all sides, but the Israeli army and help from the United States did their job. Israel has not lost a single war unleashed against it.

The third decision, which also follows from certain actions taken before the summit, is the announcement of a decision to significantly strengthen the "Eastern NATO flank", primarily the troops in the Baltic countries. Because they are less combat-ready for the war in terms of manpower and technology. So, they are to be ready to repel a Russian attack in case.

As for Belarus, the so-called Belarusian balcony, as the Z-community along with Russian and Belarusian narrow-minded generals called Belarus, will become a military and political reality in fact, as a result of the implementation of these decisions. The question of the existence of this Belarusian regime will be decided in case of some more serious threats coming from it, and there will be no matter who executes actual control over the territory of the country, Lukashenka or the Kremlin. However, the Kremlin is increasingly influencing developments in the country. The Western counties and Ukraine will have the opportunity to very quickly resolve the issue of threats emanating from the Belarusian territory.

– Will these decisions affecting Belarus be made during the summit?

– The first decision was made yesterday, on the issue of Sweden, the rest will be officially announced today or tomorrow. In fact, we can see implementation now - Poland is independently deploying troops to the east. The question is more about the actual confirmation that the allied troops will be strengthened in the Baltic countries. Therefore, here, in fact, the Belarusian regime and Putin, who played with nuclear weapons and the Wagner Group, drove themselves into a big and serious trap, bringing their end closer.

There is also a high probability that a number of decisions will be made at the summit that will not be announced.

Unfortunately, neither NATO nor those who represent the Belarusian society will say at this event that Belarus as a country has no other vector of development and ensuring its own security in the future except for membership in the European Union and NATO. Moreover, this is a non-alternative story if we want to exist as an independent state.

NATO won’t say about it because the Belarusian regime is currently a threat to the Alliance, it’s a matter of strategy. But we will not hear the same from the so-called opposition headquarters in Vilnius, because they do not look far beyond the horizon.

You can try as much as you like to measure some moods of the society in Belarus about a neutral status, the CSTO or NATO, but if this is leadership, especially responsible leadership, it should proceed from clear priorities and a clear program, and not the phrase “we will decide someday.” The need for democratic changes is to be clear now.