Arkady Moshes: Lukashenka Joked Himself Into Trouble
- 18.08.2023, 21:46
The complete closure of the border by the Baltic countries and Poland will consist of several points.
At the end of this month, the Baltic countries and Poland intend to discuss a mechanism for the complete closure of the border with Belarus, agreeing on the technical details and algorithms for synchronized actions.
The reasons for these intentions and the consequences of their implementation were discussed by Filin with Arkady Moshes, Director of the Research Program for the Eastern Neighborhood of the EU and Russia at the Finnish Institute of International Relations.
— I do not rule out that the border will be closed, although so far it is a signal: if the foreign policy behavior of Minsk does not change, then after some time this may happen, at least with the border for the movement of passengers,” the expert noted. “As for the transportation of goods, this is a separate issue and it can be considered separately”.
However, the situation is developing in such a way that this cannot be ruled out. What can I say — Mr.Lukashenka joked himself into trouble!
— What is the point in stopping passenger traffic, and is there a high probability that cargo will be blocked as well?
— We must consider all options. And the option with the initial cessation of passenger traffic seems to me the most probable.
With cargo, everything is more complicated, here Poland and Lithuania will have to take into account the economic interests of their EU partners, as well as China and others interested in transit.
Therefore, I think that even if a decision is made to completely close the borders, it will consist of several points regarding different aspects.
And I do not exclude the possibility of such a development of events, because the sanctions pressure on the Lukashenka regime is intensifying. It was practically non-existent over the past year, but now they have begun to impose sanctions again.
One of the elements of pressure may well be the closure of borders.
And first of all, the security problems of Poland and Lithuania are now on the agenda in connection with the flow of illegal migrants and other hybrid threats.
That is why the reduction in passenger traffic is so important, about which a political signal has been sent. And economic sanctions are different, this is a more complex issue, and it will be discussed longer if it comes to it.
— So migrants are a real threat, in response to which adequate measures can follow? Do you think that other threats that are often spoken about are not taken seriously by the West?
— In general, Europe may not be afraid enough, but in this case, the decisive votes will be the voices of Poland and Lithuania, to which migrants inflict the greatest damage, as well as other interested states, such as Germany.
After all, it is no secret that illegal immigrants who end up in Poland and Lithuania do not really intend to stay there.
Second, a scenario cannot be ruled out when these illegal migrants include people whose task is to destabilize the situation in European countries.
In addition, Poland and Lithuania, for sure, have long been tired of all kinds of provocations with the destruction of fences, cutting wire, throwing stones, these jokes about “excursions”, the same helicopters, etc.
But they will not throw stones in response and pull out pillars. They will simply decide to close the border. Ultimately, any government has a limit of patience, because otherwise it will be criticized from within for inaction.
— Do you think the Belarusian side is afraid of the prospect of being left without transit?
— They are definitely considering this option seriously. Otherwise, we would not have heard this rather clumsy statement last week, when he was saying that he gave the command there to establish a dialogue with Poland. Because over a long period we have heard statements of a completely different kind.
I think that the analytical services and sources that Lukashenka has in the EU told him that this time everything is serious.
Will it make him think about fixing the problem? The Polish side this time clearly voiced its demands: the cessation of all provocations at the border and the release of political prisoners.
— If a political decision to close the borders is made, how long can it take them to technically implement it?
— I think that borders can be closed very quickly. Let me give you an example: last month, during the NATO summit, Lithuania restored internal border control in the Schengen zone, and within just a week it already was on the Lithuanian border.
This was announced and done in fact instantly and quite effectively. It so happened that it was on July 10 that I passed through the Lithuanian-Latvian border along a secondary village road, but even there a full inspection of all cars was ensured. Very clear and coherent.
That is, they can do everything quickly, they have enough technical means and other resources for this.