Lukashenka Is Trapped

• ABBAS GALLYAMOV
• 18.02.2024, 12:57

The dictator crossed a fatal line.

Excessive reliance of the ruler on the power resource inevitably leads to an increase in his dependence on the security services.

As long as Putin remained popular and held power with the help of political tools, the military and law enforcement agencies were completely under his control.

However, the situation is changing right now. The main, and soon the only, mechanism of self-preservation for the Russian president will be brute force.

In this situation, he - Putin - will become dependent on people in uniform. How this may end is eloquently evidenced, for example, by the story of the fall of the father of Indonesian statehood and the country's first leader Sukarno.

Looking at what is happening now in Russia, it is clear that Putin has forgotten about this golden rule.

Well, toward the end, I would say a few words about Lukashenka. The Belarusian dictator crossed the fatal line, after which the ruler can be considered a hostage of the power apparatus, back in 2020. It may well be that the security services would have overthrown him a long time ago - perhaps even then, during the protests - but they are hampered by the dependence of the local political system on Russia. Putin bet on Lukashenka and local generals know about it. They understand that attempts to "illegally" overthrow the president can still lead to Russian military intervention.

But after the fall of the Putin regime, the "potato caudillo" will be completely defenseless. And if the Belarusians go out again, the local security services may well pull off something like what their Indonesian and Sudanese colleagues did at the time.

Abbas Gallyamov, Telegram.