What's Wrong With The Controversial Agreement Between The U.S. And Russia On Fuel Supplies
- 10.10.2026, 17:01
It's noisier than a diesel engine.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin regarding the supply of Russian diesel fuel: more than 300,000 metric tons are to be shipped immediately, another 500,000 metric tons in November, and subsequently one million metric tons. In addition, Moscow may supply up to three million metric tons, depending on the condition of the oil refineries.
“Telegraf” gathered expert opinions to determine what these agreements mean, whether Russia will be able to fulfill its promises, and whether this will affect diesel prices in the U.S. and around the world.
Russian diesel won’t have time to influence the U.S. election
Andrei Kovalenko, former head of the National Security and Defense Council’s Center for Countering Disinformation , believes that fuel prices are a weakness for Trump and the Republicans ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
“Russian diesel and news about it will not have an immediate effect on voters,” Kovalenko wrote.
The expert notes that the political risk for Republicans is growing. The Democrats have been handed a combination of “war with Iran + funding for the war in Russia” and the argument that a bipartisan sanctions law has been violated.
The midterm elections will take place in the U.S. on November 3. At the moment, the Democrats are the favorites in the House of Representatives, and in the Senate, their chances are just over 50%. Projections give Democrats a 76% chance of winning the House and a 57% chance of winning the Senate (Decision Desk HQ), along with a roughly 9-point lead in the vote for congressional candidates.
Why Experts Are Focusing on Sanctions
Ukrainian blogger and journalist Oleksiy Kopytko noted in a post on his Facebook page that Russia’s main interest lies not so much in selling diesel as in the gradual easing of sanctions.
Putin’s team decided to troll Trump over the plague, but they themselves are afraid of causing panic
—Russia’s main interest is the gradual lifting of sanctions wherever possible. Until hostilities cease, he wrote.
According to Kopytko, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has authorized transactions related to the sale, delivery, unloading, and import of diesel fuel of Russian origin. The authorization will remain in effect until April 7, 2027.
The journalist believes this is a signal to other countries that certain trade operations with Russia may resume. He also suggests that actual shipments may begin once strikes on Russian refineries cease and operations resume.
At the same time, Kopytko does not rule out that the agreements could be used as leverage to pressure for an end to the strikes against Russia.
Is Russia capable of supplying the promised volumes
Blogger Roman Shrayk noted in a post on “Shrayk News” that the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter of diesel fuel. Therefore, in his opinion, the U.S. market does not need significant purchases of Russian diesel.
Schraik also noted that Russia has imposed a ban on gasoline and diesel fuel exports due to attacks on oil refineries. In his estimation, the country does not have significant reserves that could be directed toward additional exports.
According to data cited by the blogger, in 2025 the U.S. exported 62 million metric tons of diesel, while Russia exported 34 million metric tons. Against this backdrop, he considers the volumes announced by Trump to be insignificant.
Vladimir Gorbach , a political analyst at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation , also emphasized that the first shipment of fuel will not have a significant impact on the global market.
“300,000 metric tons of diesel is roughly 2.2 million barrels. That’s just over half a day’s worth of distillate consumption in the U.S.,” the expert explained.
According to his estimate, the seaborne diesel market amounts to about 8 million barrels per day. At the same time, the shortage caused by refinery outages in Russia and the Persian Gulf, as well as Russian export restrictions, is estimated at 1.5–2 million barrels per day.
Gorbach noted that even the three upcoming announced shipments, totaling 1.8 million metric tons, would amount to about 13 million barrels. That is only 1.5–2 days’ worth of global seaborne diesel trade.
The expert also drew attention to the reaction of financial markets: following Trump’s statement, oil and diesel futures prices fell slightly. In his view, this is a reaction to a political signal and the decision on sanctions, rather than to the actual arrival of fuel on the market.
How Exports Could Affect Russia’s Domestic Market
Blogger Gennady Tverdokhleb also questioned Russia’s ability to fulfill its stated plans in his post. He compared the promised shipments to Russia’s exports in March 2026, when the country exported 1.78 million metric tons of diesel fuel in a single month.
According to Tverdokhleb’s calculations, the shipments announced by Trump for October, November, and December total 1.8 million metric tons—roughly the same amount that Russia exported during the entire month of March.
However, according to the blogger, the main question is whether Russia will be able to supply such volumes, given the damage to its oil refineries.
“More diesel for export means less diesel for the domestic market and longer lines at gas stations,” Tverdokhleb noted.
He also believes that an increase in exports will not necessarily mean an increase in production. If Russian refineries are unable to resume operations, additional shipments could exacerbate the domestic fuel shortage.
According to the blogger’s assessment, even if Russia is able to fulfill the agreements, this does not guarantee a significant drop in diesel prices in the U.S.
Will Diesel Prices Fall in the U.S.?
Blogger and public figure Denis Pyatigorez also expressed skepticism about the prospects for lower prices on the U.S. market. He pointed out that the U.S. consumes significant volumes of diesel fuel, and Russia still needs to ensure its production and delivery.
According to Pyatigorez, two factors primarily influence the price of diesel: the cost of oil and production volumes. Since the U.S. is the largest exporter of diesel fuel, he believes that Russian supplies, given the logistical challenges, are unlikely to be decisive for the American market.
Separately, the blogger drew attention to the political context of the agreements. He noted that Trump’s decision regarding Russian diesel came amid statements by Democrats about the urgent need to impose sanctions against Russia following the mass deaths in Pryluky and Kramatorsk.
Thus, according to experts, even if Russia fulfills the promised deliveries, they may not be sufficient to significantly lower diesel prices in the U.S.
At the same time, due to damage to oil refineries, it remains unclear whether Moscow will be able to deliver the promised volumes without exacerbating the fuel shortage in the domestic market.
At the same time, analysts are paying particular attention to the U.S. decision to allow transactions involving Russian diesel through April 2027, as it could have implications not only for trade but also for Washington’s sanctions policy.