ISW: The Ukrainian Armed Forces Thwarted Putin's Plans For Donbas

• 23.10.2026, 9:45

Since early September, Russia has lost more territory than it has seized.

The Russian army is not making gains on the front lines: since early September, it has lost more territory than it has captured.

This is reported by Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

How Much Territory Has Russia Lost

The ISW noted that since September 1, 2026, Russian forces have lost 241 square kilometers more of Ukrainian territory than they have captured.

The pace of the Russian advance has slowed significantly compared to 2025. In 2026, the Russian army is advancing an average of 0.25 square kilometers per day.

Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have been regaining the initiative on several sections of the front throughout 2026.

The most recent such operation—“Vivaldi” in the Liman sector. During this operation, more than 270 square kilometers were recaptured, thwarting the Russian command’s plans to encircle the “Belt of Fortresses.”

Russian Casualties Are Rising

The Russian army’s monthly casualties are increasing, and the recruitment of new soldiers is not keeping up with them.

Since the beginning of October 2026, Russia has lost nearly 37,000 troops. For the entire month of October 2025, losses totaled 31,270.

The ISW noted that in the coming months, the Kremlin may face new challenges if Ukraine continues to maintain the initiative and thwart the Russian Federation’s offensive plans.

In that case, Russian commanders may press the Kremlin leader even more insistently to carry out a mobilization in one form or another.