The Plague In Russia: What Really Happened At The Laboratory Near Irkutsk

• 6.10.2026, 13:16

What stands out is the extremely rapid progression of the disease in the deceased Russian woman.

The plague is back in Russia—at least, that is what the mysterious death of an employee at the anti-plague institute near Irkutsk. “Focus”, together with an epidemiologist and military experts, examined how real the threat of the disease spreading is, whether the Kremlin could use the plague pathogen as a biological weapon against Ukraine, and whether Ukrainians are prepared for such a scenario.

The plague has returned to Russia—at least, that is how the story unfolding in the Irkutsk region appears. There, Daria Shipilova, a 28-year-old employee of the Irkutsk Research Institute for the Prevention of Plague in Siberia and the Far East, who was studying strains of the plague bacillus (Yersinia pestis), passed away. Following her sudden death, about 200 people who may have come into contact with the scientist were quarantined, and mentions of the incident began to disappear from the Russian media.

According to media reports, Shipilova was on a business trip near Mongolia prior to her death. According to these reports, she died two days after symptoms appeared, likely from pneumonic plague. She could have been infected either during field research or as a result of a laboratory incident.

Officially, Russian authorities have not confirmed that the cause of death was indeed the plague. At the same time, footage has appeared online showing passengers on a flight from Irkutsk having their temperatures taken.

“Focus” asked epidemiologists and military experts what might actually have happened in the Irkutsk region, how dangerous pneumonic plague is, and whether Russia could theoretically use the pathogen as a biological weapon against Ukraine. Separately, the experts explained whether it is technically possible to deliver such a pathogen—specifically using a drone—and what the consequences of such an attack might be.

Plague in Russia: What Happened at the Laboratory Near Irkutsk

It is not yet known for certain whether the cause of death of the employee at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute was indeed the plague. In an interview with “Focus,” Natalia Vinograd, head of the Department of Epidemiology at the Danylo Halytsky Lviv National Medical University and chief biosafety expert at the National Security and Defense Council, noted this.

According to her, it is too early to draw conclusions about an outbreak or a laboratory incident, as there are no official results of the investigation yet.

“There is no officially confirmed information about what happened, where and when, or under what circumstances, since an investigation is underway and a commission on technogenic and environmental safety is being formed, which is taking all necessary measures at the state level to establish the facts and causes of the incident,” — Vinograd emphasized.

At the same time, the expert does not rule out the possibility of infection occurring while working with the pathogen. According to her, in a modern laboratory, it is unlikely that a container holding the pathogen simply “burst” or broke: plastic is used when conducting such research, and the process itself is monitored and recorded on video.

One possibility could be the formation of an aerosol containing the substance, which the employee may have inhaled. Another possible scenario is a technical malfunction in the biosafety cabinet, where a pressure differential creates conditions for safe work with hazardous microorganisms. The malfunction could have caused air turbulence and, consequently, a risk of exposure to the pathogen. According to Vinograd, the exact cause must be determined based on the investigation’s findings and laboratory records.

“If an aerosol was formed, the dose would have been low. For Yersinia pestis to cause the disease, 50 to 100 bacteria are required for the pulmonary form. This is one possibility that will be examined and either confirmed or ruled out,” the expert said.

Employees of such facilities are considered a high-risk occupational group, so specific protocols are in place for them in the event of a possible infection. At the same time, Vinograd points out the extremely rapid progression of the disease in the young woman.

One possible explanation could be a delay in seeking medical care. In the fall, a high fever and other early symptoms can easily be mistaken for a common respiratory infection. In the case of the plague, time is of the essence: the later treatment begins, the worse the prognosis may be.

If the plague reaches Ukraine: Is the medical community prepared?

Even when it comes specifically to Yersinia pestis, the plague is not an unknown disease to the medical community today, Vinograd emphasizes. In Ukraine, there are relevant protocols from the Ministry of Health and the agencies responsible for responding to particularly dangerous infections.

The plague pathogen can be identified, and the disease itself can be treated with antibiotics. Time is of the essence: if a person develops a high fever and their condition deteriorates rapidly, they should seek medical attention as soon as possible.

“The advantage is that this is not a virus but a bacterium—and a sensitive one at that—and we know which drugs to use to treat it, as well as how and according to what protocol to act with regard to those at potential risk of infection, so that people do not become ill. And, of course, it will be very important for people to seek medical help in a timely manner. The infectious period is very short,” the expert emphasized.

Natalia Vinograd also briefly explained what people need to know about the plague and when the risk of infection actually increases.

First and foremost, the epidemiologist emphasizes, the plague is treatable. If a case is detected in a timely manner and quarantine measures are properly implemented, people who may have come into contact with the patient are placed under medical observation and prescribed antibiotics as a preventive measure.

“When quarantine measures are implemented correctly, we monitor everyone and prescribe antibiotics to all as a preventive measure—that’s what solves the problem,” she explained.

The greatest risk exists when traveling to countries where plague cases are regularly reported. Among them, Vinograd named Madagascar, Congo, Vietnam, and Mongolia. According to her, over the past decade, the case fatality rate for this disease has remained at approximately 11%.


It is especially important not to delay seeking medical attention if symptoms appear in children or the elderly. The high-risk group also includes those who work with animals or come into professional contact with dangerous microorganisms.

The route of transmission depends on the form of the disease. Bubonic plague is most commonly transmitted through the bite of an infected flea, whereas pneumonic plague is transmitted through inhalation of an aerosol containing the pathogen. According to Vinograd, even particles of infected flea remains can be dangerous if they become airborne.

It should be noted that the UN website provides information on the current global situation regarding the plague. It states that confirmed cases (or suspected cases) of this disease have been reported in Asia (Mongolia, China, Taiwan, Vietnam), South America (Brazil, Ecuador), and in Africa (Republic of the Congo, Madagascar)—where annual outbreaks occur.

In addition, there is data on the largest plague epidemics known to human civilization. Ranking first in terms of the number of victims is the bubonic plague epidemic of 1347–1351, when 200 million people died in Asia and Europe. In second place is the Justinian Plague of 541–452, which claimed 30–50 million lives. In third place is the Third Pandemic of 1855, which claimed 12 million lives.

Bacteriological Weapons and the Plague

A separate question is whether the plague could be not only a natural or laboratory incident, but also a tool of modern warfare.

The epidemiologist explained that the plague pathogen belongs to the group A of particularly dangerous pathogens and has indeed been described in scientific and military literature as a potential agent for the creation of biological weapons. At the same time, in her opinion, the practical use of such a pathogen by the very party spreading it would be extremely risky.

The fact is that the plague, especially its pneumonic form, is capable of spreading further and extending beyond the initial area of infection. In other words, the consequences of such an attack would be difficult to control, and the threat could ultimately come back to haunt Russia itself.

“In principle, anyone who wants to can do whatever they want in today’s world—maybe that’s how it looks, but it’s unlikely. Who would have any interest in seeing their children and grandchildren die, right? It would come back to bite them—it’s not that simple. The use of biological agents requires consideration of the consequences for oneself,” Vinograd emphasized.

However, the very possibility of using the plague as a biological weapon is not a new topic. Even back in the days of the USSR, there were programs dealing with particularly dangerous pathogens, so *Focus* turned to military expert Oleg Zhdanov to find out how realistic such a scenario is today.

According to Zhdanov, a scenario involving a hypothetical test tube containing the plague pathogen being sprayed over Ukraine from a drone seems unrealistic. However, he outlined several other possibilities depending on the form of the pathogen. For example, anthrax was delivered in powder form, and its use in warfare involves dispersal via cluster munitions or large aviation devices (VAP). As for the plague, in the past, the Soviet Union considered the option of a special bomb that would be dropped from an aircraft at low altitude via parachute: a swarm of rats would pour out of the container onto the ground, intended to spread the disease across enemy territory.

“This is a highly improbable scenario. It’s very difficult to organize such a bacteriological attack. But in principle, it is a weapon. You can’t just drop a test tube, because rodents are carriers, and human infection requires direct contact with them. But still, I don’t think so,” the expert explained.

Zhdanov also rejected the theory that Russia could use the plague as a biological weapon to sow panic in the Ukrainian rear or create problems on the front lines. The problem is that the disease is contagious, and it is impossible to ensure that the outbreak remains localized. Given this, the epidemic would spread throughout the country, whereas Putin would like to take control of Ukraine, not, so to speak, a “poisonous desert.” Moreover, the epidemic would spread to Russian troops, and therefore there is no point in considering such a scenario.

The military expert also pointed out that after the death of the Russian lab technician, 200 people were quarantined, but so far there is no evidence that anyone has fallen ill: in the case of a real plague, this would not have happened. Moreover, when people talk about a “broken test tube,” they fail to consider that modern “test tubes” are made of special glass and protected by rubber, so they do not break when they hit the floor. Instead, the Kremlin could have deliberately staged or exploited the incident to play its political cards: to “scare the Chinese,” who are carrying out a massive expansion in Transbaikalia, and to secure U.S. assistance. Moreover, the plague scandal makes no sense as a justification for imposing a quarantine and initiating mobilization. First, many men were drafted from this region in the early years of the war against Ukraine, and the area has a low population density. Furthermore, there’s been no mention of closing the border with Georgia or Belarus, through which potential soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces are fleeing: in other words, the plague did not serve as a pretext.

“First, we need to ask: was there even a boy there? Look at this from the perspective of preserving the territory of the Russian Federation. I think this is a ‘staged epidemic,’ and it may also have a political nature,” Zhdanov concluded.