Yuri Felshtinsky: Lukashenko’s Ouster Is A Matter Of Hours Or Days
- 6.10.2026, 13:20
Russia's defeat will begin with the liberation of Belarus.
Could Belarus have a chance to make a rapid, historic leap toward freedom in the event of a Russian defeat or a severe crisis in Moscow? The renowned American historian and journalist Yuri Felshtinsky discussed this in an interview YouTube channel “Radio Racyja.”
According to the historian, Russia has never been able to take deep root in Belarus:
— My latest book is dedicated to Belarus . It has been published in several languages, and just today it was released in English. It’s called *Natalia Radina’s Belarus: A Journalist Against a Dictator*.
A regime change in Belarus, in the event of a military invasion of Belarus, is a two-week matter. Simply a matter of two weeks. Russia undoubtedly uses Belarus as a springboard and plans to continue using it as such. Lukashenko is undoubtedly a dependent politician. Belarus is a classic dictatorship, unlike Russia. In the Russian Federation, a corporation of security service operatives is in power. That is an entirely different system of governance. But in Belarus, we’re talking about a classic dictatorship.
Lukashenko’s overthrow is truly a matter of hours or days. In reality, Russia has not been able to take root in Belarus and never will. On the other hand, Europe cannot be safe as long as Belarus is ruled by a pro-Russian dictator. One need only look at a map to understand: Belarus will always be a springboard for a Russian invasion of Europe.
If Russia loses Belarus, it is effectively losing the war against Ukraine. This is a very important point, because today, perhaps not everyone views Belarus and its significance in this light.
Let me emphasize: if Russia loses Belarus as a springboard for threatening Europe or as a springboard for a ground invasion of Europe, Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Because the war in Ukraine in 2022 was planned as a blitzkrieg for further advancement into Europe. Moldova was supposed to be the next country, and from there, Russia had already planned to move into Europe, once again using Belarus as a springboard for invasion.
If Russia loses Belarus, if Belarus becomes a democracy, if it joins the European Union and then NATO as well, then Russia is, in fact, losing the battle for Europe. It will remain isolated. But this is where Putin has driven Russia. It retains China as an ally—but again, this is where Putin has driven Russia. Russia will no longer pose the same threat to Europe. But for that to happen, Lukashenko must be overthrown in Belarus. Unlike overthrowing Putin in Russia, this is a relatively quick undertaking.
In Ukraine—and this is no secret—quite a few Belarusians are fighting on the Ukrainian side as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). If a political decision is made to bring about regime change in Belarus, then forming Belarusian liberation units from among the Belarusians fighting in the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be a matter of very little time. The Belarusians themselves have been raising this issue since 2022.
In fact, it is precisely in Belarus that the chain of events—which will later be called Russia’s defeat in this war—should begin. There have been precedents for this. The liberation of Germany from Nazism did not begin with the Allied landings in Germany. The battles for Germany were the last in that chain. First, all the occupied territories were liberated.
So the fact that this battle begins with the liberation of Belarus from Russian occupation is also quite obvious.
The book *Belarus by Natalia Radina* is available for purchase:
Belarusian edition—published by “Yanushkevich” “Knihavka” and in Warsaw at the “Knihavka” bookstore at ul. Kłopotowskiego 4, 03-717.
Russian edition—the website of the publisher Amazon.
Ukrainian edition—Yakaboo.