Lukashenko Needs To Be Soberly Evaluated

• Viktor Yagun
• 30.03.2026, 7:44

The dictator is deeply dependent on Russia.

Either illusions or panic moods are already beginning to appear around the US contacts with Belarus. Some talk about Lukashenka's alleged "return by the West". Others - about the possibility to tear Belarus away from Russia. Neither the first nor the second corresponds to reality.

The situation should be looked at soberly.

The US is not looking for an ally in Lukashenko. The US is looking for channels of communication in the conditions of a big war, where direct contacts with Moscow, and even more so with Pyongyang, have a high political price. In such situations, so-called technical platforms always appear - countries that are not partners but can act as intermediaries.

It is in this role that Belarus is trying to position itself.

Lukashenko's logic is simple and cynical at the same time. He is not trying to break away from Russia. He is trying to sell the West access to the Russian leadership. And in parallel, the possibility of contacts with the DPRK. That is why his trip to Pyongyang does not contradict contacts with the United States. This is not a change of course. It is an attempt to increase his own political weight.

The more Lukashenko demonstrates ties with toxic regimes, the more expensive he tries to sell his "usefulness". This is the old school of authoritarian survival: not to change positions, but to make different sides pay for the possibility of contact.

What does he want to get?

It is about quite pragmatic things: easing of sanctions pressure, restoration of revenues from potash exports, de facto recognition of him as a negotiating party, and most importantly, time to strengthen the regime. In response, he is trying to offer limited steps: release of individual prisoners, signals of readiness for dialog, the role of a negotiating platform.

But the main thing to understand is that Belarus today is not a neutral state. It is a country with a deep military dependence on Russia. Its territory was used for the invasion of Ukraine. Russian military infrastructure remains there, and integration is only growing.

And no U.S. contacts with Lukashenko change this fact.

Viktor Yagun, Facebook.