"The Empire Will Collapse": Belarus Can Trigger Change Across The Region

• 24.04.2026, 16:13

The presentation of the book "Belarus by Natalia Radina" gathered a full hall in Vilnius.

Vilnius, one of the centers of Belarusian emigration after 2020, has long been accustomed to opposition actions, cultural and musical evenings, meetings with politicians. It seemed difficult to surprise this audience.

But on a weekday evening, Wednesday, April 22, the visit center of the Seimas of Lithuania is filled with those who are interested in Belarus. The reason is presentation of the new book of the American famous historian Yuri Felshtinsky "Natalia Radina's Belarus: Journalist vs. Dictator".

The meeting was attended by Natalia Radina, editor-in-chief of the website Charter97.org, coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Dmitry Bondarenko, and was moderated by priest Vyacheslav Borok.

The event was attended by Lithuanian MP, leader of the "group of friends of Belarus" in the Seimas Ruslanas Baranavas, special envoy of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry for relations with democratic Belarus Asta Andrijauskienė, former political prisoner, leader of the Belarusian Christian Democracy Pavel Seviarynets, well-known human rights activist and former prisoner of conscience Leonid Sudalenko, former political prisoner and journalist Oleh Gruzdilovich, ex-prisoners of conscience Alexander Bobko, Sergei Sparish, former fighter of Kalinowski's regiment Alexander Klochko, Belarusian Orthodox priest of the Constantinople Patriarchate Georgy Roy, coordinators of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Maksim Viniarski, Andrei Sharendo, Andrei Voynich, bloggers Dmitry Kozlov ("Gray Cat"), Andrei Pauk, representatives of the Belarusian, Ukrainian and Russian diasporas.

"We all have a chance to finally get rid of this empire"

At the beginning of the meeting, Natalia Radina emphasized that Vilnius played a special role in the appearance of Yuri Felshtinsky's book:

- The idea of the book was born here, during the Free Russia Forum in 2023. I was invited as a speaker from Belarus, and I very briefly told the history of our country. I realized then that many people simply do not know about Belarus.

It was very strange, because we are in the center of Europe, and today a lot depends on our country in the region as a whole. And people from Lithuania, Poland and Russia don't know who Belarusians are. There was great interest in our history in the hall and it became clear that people know nothing at all about the Polotsk Principality, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, or the role played by Belarusians in these state unions.

After that, Yuri Felshtinsky, whom I have known for many years, came up to me and said: "Natalia, you should write a book, because as a historian I realize how important your country is. After all, today, unfortunately, it has turned into a military bridgehead from which Russia threatens Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine. You need to write about Belarus so that people in the West realize that your country should be free."

Yuri realized that it was difficult to write this book without being a Belarusian historian. He suggested doing it through the prism of my life. Of course, it seemed very strange to me: who am I to write a book about my life. But my friends supported me and said: "No, let's write it". And together with the leaders of "European Belarus" Andrei Sannikov, Dmitri Bondarenko and Belarusian Olympic medalist Alexandra Gerasimeni we started to tell about our country and struggle. I have been working as an independent journalist since I was 18 years old, and since 1996, when I came to Minsk, I witnessed all the events that took place in Belarus almost immediately after Alexander Lukashenko came to power.

I hope that the book has turned out to be successful and that it will convince people all over the world that Belarus is worth fighting for, that the Belarusian people, who have been fighting for their freedom for 32 years, need support.

Consecrator Vyacheslav Borok quoted an excerpt from the book, where Natalia Radina talks about her ancestors. In their fates, many Belarusians recognize the stories of their families - repression, exile, life under occupation. However, the book contains words about hope that "new generations will manage to escape from this vicious circle". The host asked whether Natalia Radina managed to do it:

- I think that the Belarusians, who are fighting for their country today, have broken out of this vicious circle. I hope that I have managed to do the same. After all, when I came to journalism at the age of 18, I immediately realized that I would not work in the state media. It was 1997, and already then it was clear where the country was going, that Lukashenko was building a dictatorship, and there was no freedom in the state media.

I was originally going to work in television, but I had to go to newspapers, because television was already taken over by Lukashenko and strict censorship was introduced there.

As for the freedom of Belarusians, our country, it seems to me that now we are all in the process of breaking these shackles. For hundreds of years Belarus has been under Russian occupation, and now, when Russia is waging this shameful and terrible war against Ukraine, we all have a chance to finally get rid of this empire, that it will finally collapse, and we will be free.

Csendz Vyacheslav Borok asked Dmitri Bondarenko who is the main enemy for him, as a Belarusian patriot. The opposition politician said that being in the KGB prison after the events of Square 2010, he was constantly asked why he was fighting Lukashenko:

- At first, the officers of special services "pressed" us hard, exerted enormous pressure. But then we just talked, and I'm sure a lot of our conversations stayed in their heads. We said that we were fighting not against Lukashenka, because today there is one dictator, tomorrow there may be someone else. We are fighting for a free and Belarusian Belarus.

I told them: "Look, if you were a national Belarusian dictatorship, maybe I wouldn't fight, although I love freedom so much I'm not sure about it. But you are just licking the boots of the Russians, you are not officers of the Belarusian state and do not think about the security of our country."

The Belarusian jailers have portraits of Putin and Russian flags on their walls. Back in 2010-2012, when they tried to recruit us, they referred to quotes from Denikin, Kolchak and Russian philosopher Ilyin. I said: "I am a Belarusian patriot, you are just unfit. We have always fought for freedom, for independence. We learned this from our neighbors, and, first of all, from the Lithuanians. Therefore, the main enemy for me is the Russian empire.

"It is time to learn the common history of resistance"

Vyacheslav Borok turned to the biography of Natalia Radina and noted that she became editor-in-chief at a critical moment for Charter'97 - after the murder of the site's founder Oleg Bebenin by the regime. The presenter asked whether Natalya Radina was scared at that moment. The journalist told how the events of 2010 affected her life:

- It was in "Charter" that I found friends and associates, people who always set the task to defeat Lukashenko.

When Andrei Sannikov, head of the civil campaign "European Belarus" and one of the founders of the civil initiative "Charter'97", became a presidential candidate in 2010, we realized that it was a chance to change the situation. We were ready to risk even our lives and went with the intention not just to participate in the election campaign, as some politicians say today. We knew that we were going to the end. Andrei Sannikov was defeated by Lukashenko in 2010; according to independent observers, he was supposed to make it to the second round and could have become president of Belarus.

Unfortunately, three months before the election, Oleg Bebenin, the founder of Charter and its editor-in-chief, was killed. Of course, it was a great shock for me, because Oleg was not just a colleague, he was a friend for many years. We started working with him back in 1997 in the newspaper "Name", which was then a very popular publication in Belarus. But it was clear that we could not stop. No matter how hard and scary it was, I was sure that we had to keep moving forward, we could not be afraid.

After that election campaign, we all ended up in prison, we were arrested on election day in the square. But I'm very glad we didn't stop then. I believe that we showed an example that Belarusians should fight for their freedom, risk their will and life - there is no other choice.

Ten years later, the people have regained their strength, people took to the streets again, and it became clear that as long as Lukashenko is in power, one should fight and protest.

It should be noted that the participants of the meeting in Vilnius, the former capital of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, repeatedly referred to the common past of Belarusians and Lithuanians. Dmitri Bondarenko, answering the question about the experience of the Belarusian resistance, pointed to the shared history of the countries in our region.

- Belarus is not some unique country. We are the same state as Poland, Hungary or Czechoslovakia, the Baltic states in the late 80s. Belarusians are a bit late, but today we are fighting this "red dragon", the Russian double-headed eagle, which has returned after centuries. In that sense, we are one of the countries in the region that continues the common struggle for our and your freedom.

We learned from the dissidents in the Baltic States, from the Polish Solidarity movement. But after 2020, I talked to many Polish veterans, heroes of the anti-communist resistance, and they said, "Look, we didn't have it so tough. Maybe only in the first months of martial law in Poland. What is happening in Belarus today is closer to Stalinism."

I know that there are various historical discussions going on now, but it seems to me that today it is time to teach a common history of how our ancestors - Lithuanians, Belarusians, Poles, Ukrainians - fought together in the battles at Blue Waters, at Vorskla, at Zalgiris and Orsha, at Moscow and Vienna. This is a unique experience, when our peoples, being one state, in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, fought together. And they really saved Europe - from the Tatars, from Moscow, from the Ottoman Empire. It seems to me that today this experience is needed again. This is what unites us.

"Perhaps it is Belarus that will become the impulse that will cause changes in Russia"

Dmitry Bondarenko said he sees the future of Belarus in the EU and NATO, and also speculated about the future of the region:

- Lithuanians and Ukrainians and I have lived for hundreds of years in the same states, free or under oppression. Today, when Lithuania is a member of NATO and a member of the European Union, it cannot be that for thousands of years people lived side by side and then a border appeared. It will not happen, the border is temporary. And, of course, Belarus will be a member of NATO and the European Union - like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, neighboring Ukraine.

I would certainly not discard the Russians either, although we have all suffered greatly from Russia. However, I know, for example, that many fighters who volunteered to help Ukraine back in 2015 were Russians. There were thousands of them, when there were only dozens of Belarusians fighting for Ukraine at the time. Today we know that many Russians are also fighting on the side of Ukraine.

European part of Russia will not go anywhere, it will remain next to us, we will still have common borders, and something will have to be done about it. Perhaps Belarus will be the impulse that will cause changes in Russia.

All our countries already have a big common problem - depopulation, we will compete for labor force. Perhaps Belarusians will compete, for example, to get the best Ukrainians and Russians to come to work for us. We, Belarusians, will have to create conditions for the arrival of people from the West. Maybe we should open several universities, a branch of some cool American university in Belarus, maybe a British one, maybe YSU will come back to us from Lithuania in a new image.

After that, Belarusian Orthodox priest of the Constantinople Patriarchate Georgy Roy took the floor. In his speech in Lithuanian, he described the importance of the book "Natalia Radina's Belarus" for him personally:

- Dear Natalia, you and I are fellow countrymen. There is a lot of interesting information in this book, which you gave me. Now I will tell you that this book was taken from me by my son, who is a student of Gdansk University, studying political science. He is very interested in what was happening in Belarus. I am amazed at how differently young people look at history.

I read with great interest the first chapters of this book, devoted to your childhood and our native Kobrin region. It was interesting to compare how we grew up, we lived in the same city, in the same place. I think you have indeed done a very important work - it is about all these years of struggle. It's good that this book exists - it's a necessary retrospective: what happened to us, where we are now. It helps to move forward.

"You have no other future than a free Belarus"

Lithuanian MP Ruslanas Baranavas, who helped organize the presentation of the book in Vilnius, said what surprises him about Belarusians on the example of former political prisoners who were forcibly transported to Lithuania:

- It seems that a person served five years in prison, fought for 20-30 years. It would seem that they would transfer him to Lithuania, and it would be understandable if he would say: that's enough, I will live in peace in Europe.

But the people we met said the same day: "What will we do next? How do we keep fighting?" That's very impressive.

Not one person said, "I want to rest, that's enough. No, everybody's going to keep fighting. I think with this spirit you have no other future than a free Belarus.

The Lithuanian politician urged Belarusians to look for new approaches and ways to resist Lukashenko's regime, as well as to share them with the West:

- After 2020, Lithuania had the idea of maximum pressure on Lukashenko's regime - sanctions, isolation. We expected this regime to fall. After 2022, when Ukraine was attacked from the territory of Belarus, we said everywhere that there were two aggressors - Russia and Lukashenko's regime, not Belarusians. We thought that when the Ukrainians won the war, there would be an opportunity to solve two issues at once - in Moscow and Minsk. Today I urge you to share your ideas, write articles. After all, it is important for the Lithuanian people, where today there are also voices about "dialog with Lukashenko."

A well-known Lithuanian journalist Vytautas Bruveris asked a question about the policy of US President Donald Trump, who started negotiations with Lukashenko's regime, as well as about possible aggression from the territory of Belarus. Natalia Radina noted that she has always been in favor of pressure on the Belarusian ruler:

- I see that these negotiations with the U.S. save people, not dictatorship. The sanctions that the Americans are lifting do not affect the situation in the economy very much. That is why it is important for Lukashenko that the restrictive measures be lifted by the EU countries.

It is very good that Europe and Lithuania remain principled and say that they demand systemic changes: to stop repression, to withdraw from the war that Lukashenko's regime together with Putin is waging against Ukraine. And then we can already talk about lifting economic sanctions.

What about Lukashenko's threats... What if he is warning? Maybe there is actually a threat of an attack. We realize that Belarus today is a Russian military bridgehead. And as long as Russia is present in Belarus on such a scale, the threat to Ukraine and the Baltic States will remain. Therefore, I do not exclude various options. We realize that for now Russia does not have the resources to introduce a war on two fronts, but I would not rule out any scenarios.

"Belarusian independent journalists protect the whole region"

Answering the question about what Belarusian emigration can do today, Natalia Radina urged to focus on specific goals, rather than spend money on creating incomprehensible structures:

- The most important thing now is to conduct information work on Belarus. It is very important that there should be support for independent Belarusian media. Unfortunately, there are problems with this.

"Charter'97" is the most popular Belarusian site according to statistics, but its support is insufficient. I don't even know how we will work next year - very little help from Western funds. We should say that without independent media Belarus will not become free, because we need to oppose the propaganda that comes from Russia and Lukashenko's media.

We, independent journalists, also provide security in the region. Why didn't the Belarusian army enter Ukraine? This is also the merit of independent media, which are read and listened to in Belarus more than Lukashenko's propaganda.

Secondly, of course, the work of human rights organizations is important. It is necessary to support former political prisoners who come to the West. It is important to help the families of the repressed inside Belarus, no matter how hard it may be - to find ways for this help to reach them.

Diplomatic work is also important: talking to Western politicians to convey the truth about what is happening inside the country and to influence the formation of Western policy towards Belarus. But this is all we can do. I don't see any sense in any pseudo- and quasi-state structures created in emigration. I think it is an unnecessary waste of money.

One of the questions from the audience concerned the 2020 revolution. Why didn't the security forces come to the side of the protesting Belarusians? Coordinator of "European Belarus" Dmitri Bondarenko pointed out that people who called themselves leaders did not turn to the military:

- Recently, former political prisoner, lawyer Maksim Znak told about how together with Maria Kolesnikova and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya they took a complaint to the CEC to "borshchevarka" Yermoshina. They did not think about addressing the military, but for some reason took the complaint to an official who was under all the international sanctions.

The generals did not hear anyone on which side to switch.

But I note that the split of the elites took place then. We talked to our friends from "European Belarus", who were sitting in the zones. There is another category of prisoners in Belarus, they are really heroes. And they go, as a rule, under the article "treason against the motherland. They are judges, prosecutors, officials, military, police officers, special forces, who refused to carry out orders. And there are hundreds of them, they say. They don't pass as political prisoners. That was the split of the elites, when many people refused to follow orders.

Unfortunately, the leaders who could have done a lot, such as Nikolai Statkevich, the same Pavel Seviarynets, Sergei Tikhanovsky, who acted very bravely, a number of other people, had already been arrested by that time. And I didn't understand at the time why the so-called leaders didn't call on the protesters to go on television and appeal to the military to come to the side of the people. Journalists and, most importantly, technical staff were leaving the television.

But here one should have known the experience of the same Belarusian Popular Front, which, in order to put pressure on the authorities, called on people to come to the television, and they were given the opportunity to speak. This was not done in 2020.

Natalia Radina also said that the book will soon be published in English, and after the presentation, which took place in Tallinn, it was proposed to translate it into Estonian. The book should also be published in Polish and Lithuanian.

Answering a question about her plans for the future, Natalia Radina said that the main thing for her now is "to return to free Belarus."

At the end of the meeting, an encouraging word was delivered by priest Vyacheslav Borok:

- I hope that this meeting has given us some hope that we will wait for a better future. And I appeal to each of you: write the book of your life. If you are Belarusian - write about your Belarus, dream and think about it, work for the good of Belarus. Write a book of the nation to which you have the honor to belong. If in the plots of these books there will be not a single percent of cooperation with evil, if there will be uncompromising attitude to evil, but at the same time we will be able to negotiate with other people, we will be able to write a unique book of free and European Belarus, and all together - of peaceful Europe.

But let's not give in to illusions that we can agree with those who once tasted human blood. You can't negotiate with them with the help of "flowers". Let's save flowers for their funeral.

With special hope I am looking forward to the presentation of this book in Minsk. Thank you all very much.