Lukashenko Is Cornered

• Alexander Levchenko
• 27.04.2026, 9:48

The dictator is afraid of repeating the fate of his friends.

The media reported that in accordance with the decree №132 of 17.04.2026 of Alexander Lukashenko on conscription of reserve officers, Belarus started a hidden mobilization. The decree signed by Lukashenko on the drafting of reserve officers in 2026 is not a simple "planned" personnel procedure, but a general militarization of the country, within the framework of which a hidden mobilization has begun. According to the official version of Minsk, the army needs "initial officer positions" and a reliable mobilization reserve. The call-up concerns young men, reserve officers under 27 years old, who are to become the fighting backbone for an army that will be quickly deployed in case of military escalation. At first glance, this is ostensibly a standard bureaucratic procedure, but the training of reservists will be handled not so much by Minsk as by the Russian General Staff. For many years, the Belarusian army has been in a state of continuous military exercises under the close supervision of Russian instructors, which means the integration of Belarusian units into the management system of Russia's armed forces.

Alexander Lukashenko's decision to mobilize potentially turns Belarusian servicemen into "cannon fodder" for the Kremlin. Russia, whose losses in manpower have reached unprecedented levels in the fifth year of its invasion of Ukraine, is in dire need of additional manpower. Belarus' entry into the war will lead to inevitable significant losses among the most educated and able-bodied part of the country's male population. Alexander Lukashenko has turned the country's territory into a springboard for Russian psychological and military pressure, which only increases the risks of Belarusians being drawn into someone else's conflict as a tool of pressure from the Kremlin. His public confession on television when addressing the people that "I don't know what to prepare you for" is a de facto capitulation of a cornered and very scared man who is panic-stricken of repeating the fate of his former friends Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Slobodan Milosevic and Nicolas Maduro. Since the Belarusian army is de facto controlled by Russia's general staff, Belarus' reserve officers soon risk becoming not defenders of the homeland but tools in Putin's war of aggression. In 2022, Belarus already provided its territory and airspace to Russia for an offensive against Kiev. Then the Russian army was able to approach the capital of Ukraine on the first day of the war. After all, official Minsk constantly assured Kiev that there would never be an attack by Russian troops against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. This was a complete lie. Then the Belarusian army itself remained on the sidelines, and in non-public conversations Belarusian officials only "spread their hands" and claimed that they could do nothing about the Russian offensive from their territory. So will Minsk decide to directly participate in the war this time and will it now open a second front against Ukraine? There is some unofficial information about a possible coup d'état in Belarus in 2026. This is increasingly associated with the destructive work of Russian special services in Belarus. The Russian FSB is actively preparing the ground for the final takeover of the country through the structures of the "Union State", using the hidden mobilization of reserve officers as one of the main instruments of destabilization. The mobilization, conducted under the guise of "planned training camps," is designed to create controlled chaos, in which it may be easier for Russian handlers to carry out a forceful transit of power.

At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko is threatening the use of nuclear weapons to neighboring countries - Poland and the Baltic States. The media reported that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, in an interview with the Russian RT, threatened neighboring states with possible use of all weapons, including nuclear weapons, in response to alleged "aggression" against his country. At the same time, it is unclear why anyone would plan an attack on Belarus at all. He emphasized that the Kremlin could not afford to lose Belarus, calling the country a key strategic shield between Russia and the West, and also recalled the existence of a Russian military grouping in the western regions of Russia, ready to quickly support the Belarusian army. Lukashenko also said that Minsk allegedly has no plans to "attack" Poland and the Baltic states, but in case of aggression against it, it will enter the war together with Russia and use "everything it has," including nuclear weapons, if the country's existence is threatened. It is not excluded that Moscow together with Minsk are already preparing some large-scale provocation in order to accuse the neighboring countries of some fictitious act of aggression. Thus, in 1939, the Soviet Union launched large-scale hostilities against Finland, justifying itself by the fact that allegedly small Finland attacked the huge USSR.

Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that roads to the territory of Ukraine and artillery positions were being built on the border of Belarus. We are talking about a possible next attempt of Moscow to draw Belarus into a war. In this regard, the head of the Ukrainian state instructed to warn the actual leadership of Belarus through the appropriate channels of communication about Ukraine's resolute readiness to defend its land and independence.

Modern Belarus demonstrates full political, economic and military dependence on Russia, and self-proclaimed President of Belarus Lukashenko often acts as a relay of Russian messages for neighboring countries and Western audiences. This means that any of his statements should be considered not only as a position of Belarus, but also as an element of the Kremlin's policy of pressure on Ukraine and the EU. Lukashenko seeks to hold on to power in Belarus at all costs. His bellicose rhetoric is an attempt to demonstrate control over the domestic situation and, at the same time, to testify his loyalty to the Kremlin. This position allows him to maintain Moscow's support, which is a key factor in preserving his regime. With his statements, Lukashenko actually confirms that Belarus is not an independent player, but acts as a kind of "shield" for Russia. For the Kremlin, the country is critical as a springboard in the confrontation with the EU and NATO, as well as a logistical hub in the war against Ukraine. Such a role makes Minsk completely dependent on Moscow and turns it into a tool for the realization of Russian geopolitical interests. The deployment of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons, including dozens of warheads, on the territory of Belarus in 2023 significantly changes the security balance in Eastern Europe. At the same time, the real control over these weapons is exercised not by Minsk, but by Moscow, which emphasizes Belarus' lack of real sovereignty in the sphere of defense. An additional threat to Europe is also posed by the deployment in Belarus of missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons, in particular medium-range missiles of the "Oreshnik" type, which are integrated into the Russian military infrastructure and missile potential. In case of escalation, Minsk will act as a military appendage of Russia, actually turning into a platform for the use of Russian nuclear force against Europe, which emphasizes the dependence of Belarus on the Kremlin and increases security risks for the entire region.

Nuclear threats by Lukashenko are mainly psychological in nature, their purpose is to increase the level of fear in the EU countries, primarily in Poland and the Baltic States, to influence the mood of European society and political decisions of the leadership of these countries. For the EU, Lukashenko's statements mean the growth of risks on the eastern flank and the threat of further escalation of the conflict. This forces official Brussels to strengthen defense measures, invest in military presence on its eastern border and prepare for scenarios in which Belarus may become a direct participant in the war.

Alexander Levchenko, Observer