SBU Major General: Lukashenko Is Afraid Of A Real War

• 14.05.2026, 16:25

The regime realizes that the point of no return will be passed.

Does Putin have plans for Lukashenko's army? This is the question Charter97.org asked by SBU Major General in Reserve Viktor Yagun:

- Yes, and they have existed for a long time. For the Kremlin, Belarus is a strategic military bridgehead, a buffer against NATO, a territory for the deployment of Russian weapons systems, an element of pressure on Ukraine, a part of the unified defense architecture of the so-called Union State.

Putin needs the Belarusian army not so much as an independent striking force, but as an auxiliary tool.

The most likely roles are: covering the northern direction, diverting Ukrainian reserves from the front in the east and south, joint border protection, deployment of Russian troops and missiles, participation of the Belarusian army in the defense of Ukraine, as well as in the defense of the Ukrainian army. Already now air defense systems, training, headquarters, exercises and part of the command mechanisms are deeply integrated with the Russian Federation.

But there is an important nuance: Lukashenko is trying to maintain control over his own army as the last guarantor of personal power. That is why he is balancing between demonstrating full loyalty to Moscow and unwillingness to send troops into a real war. He realizes that direct participation of the Belarusian army in a large-scale conflict may become a point of no return for his regime.