Russian Space Rocket Debris May Fall On Poland

• 16.05.2026, 8:59

May 16-17.

Polish space agency POLSA has warned that part of a Russian rocket - a Fregat module weighing about 1 ton - could enter the atmosphere over Polish territory between May 16 and 17. It is possible that individual fragments will not burn up and will fall to the ground.

This is reported by POLSA.

What is known about the object

"Fregat" is the upper stage of the Soyuz-2.1b rocket launched in March from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. The module is equipped with fuel tanks and control systems. It is now in orbit and is expected to enter the atmosphere soon.

POLSA estimates this could happen between 8:43 a.m. May 16 and 1:49 p.m. May 17 Polish time. The predicted trajectory covers a large part of Europe.

Is there a threat

Specialists cannot accurately determine whether the object will completely burn up on re-entry - due to a lack of complete data on the module's design and materials. Such situations are extremely rare, but for large structures the scenario of fragments falling is not excluded.

POLSA urges to avoid misinformation and rely only on confirmed data - calculations can change even a few hours before the object reenters the atmosphere.