Putin Miscalculated

• 23.05.2026, 19:09

Xi Jinping drops Russia with 'Power of Siberia 2'.

Russian dictator Putin, on a visit to Beijing, hoped to reach a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, but came back with nothing.

Chinese leader Si Jinping still refuses to approve the project, insisting on more favorable terms for the Middle Kingdom, writes Foreign Policy.

Russia desperately needs this pipeline after losing a significant portion of the European market. The Kremlin had hoped that the energy crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the growing risks associated with LNG would force Beijing to soften its stance.

But China continues to push for lower prices and favorable contract terms, knowing that Moscow has fewer alternatives left.

Chinese authorities remember what happened after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Negotiations over the Power of Siberia-1 project dragged on for years until Putin finally agreed to lower prices and paid for much of the pipeline infrastructure himself after relations with the West collapsed.

The piece also notes that the imbalance between Moscow and Beijing is becoming structural. Russian missile and drone production relies heavily on Chinese equipment, electronics and dual-use components.

Chinese firms have also replaced a significant portion of Western corporations that left Russia after 2022. Factories formerly owned by Volkswagen and other foreign companies now assemble Chinese products with Russian partners.

Even within Russia itself, there is growing concern about becoming China's junior partner. Russian officials and the business elite openly warn that dependence on Beijing limits the room for maneuver in the future.