A Warning From Zaluzhny

• Vladimir Fesenko
• 1.06.2026, 14:35

The West needs a Black Sea strategy.

What a symbolic coincidence. A forum dedicated to security issues in the Black Sea region opens in Odessa. And on the same day, a Russian drone hits a residential house in the Romanian border town of Galati.

Luckily, there were no casualties, although two civilians and the house itself were injured. Romania has so far episodically felt what is happening every day in Ukraine. Romania and NATO were outraged, even closed the Russian consulate in Constanta, once again debated what to do about it. And that seems to be all. But the Kremlin's chief political moron, Dmitri Medvedev, has already promised a continuation for the Europeans. And, alas, he is right.

The incident in Galati is a direct natural consequence of the Alliance's toothless and helpless response to the previous numerous violations by Russian drones and missiles of the airspace of Romania and some NATO and EU countries that share borders with Ukraine, which is attacked daily by Russia, including from the air. And the border regions of Ukraine, which are close to NATO countries - Odessa region, western Ukrainian regions - are constantly under attack. Therefore, the repetition of such incidents, which happened in Galati, is inevitable.

The same days there was an aggravation of hostilities in the waters of the Black Sea. Russia attacked a Turkish ship that was returning from Odessa. And before that there were strikes on tankers of the Russian shadow fleet in the Black Sea.

All this once again reminded how important this region is both in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war and for European security as a whole.

Ukraine perfectly understands the great importance of the Black Sea region for our national security. When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, one of the Kremlin's military goals was to seize all Ukrainian regions on the coast of the Azov and Black Seas, to completely cut us off from the sea as a strategic resource. In the Sea of Azov they succeeded, hopefully temporarily. But the Kremlin's plans for the Black Sea failed. On the contrary, Ukraine managed to find an optimal strategy of counter-action against Russia in the Black Sea region.

In contrast to Ukraine, NATO and the EU clearly underestimate the security weight of the Black Sea region. This was emphasized in his speech at the Odessa Security Forum by Valeriy Zaluzhny, ex-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukraine's ambassador to the UK. He noted the lack of NATO strategy in the Black Sea region. According to Zaluzhny, the Alliance continues to treat the Black Sea as an "internal lake" of the Russian Federation. Thus, NATO allows the Russians to expand their combat capabilities there.

European Union has presented a strategy for the Black Sea, and even stated ambitious goals in it, but, according to Valery Zaluzhny, in modern conditions this strategy is just a declarative and ineffective document. And this ineffectiveness only incites the Russians to more active actions and demonstration of their capabilities. The former head of the AFU noted that today even the idea of creating the Black Sea Maritime Security Center has not been implemented.

Returning to the incident in Galati, I would like to note that situational reactions (especially such as we have now) on the part of NATO and individual European countries are not enough to deter Russia. We need systemic action. This is what Valeriy Zaluzhny calls our partners from NATO and EU.

Valeriy Fedorovich formulated several other important challenges for the security of the Black Sea region. And this concerns not only the current situation, but the strategic attitude to the security of this region.

Zaluzhny recalled the key role of the Bosporus Strait for security in the Black Sea region. Turkey's blocking of warship traffic along the Bosporus during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine prevented the Russians from reinforcing their own fleet and limited their offensive and strike capabilities. However, the former head of the AFU warns that the opening of the Bosphorus (after the likely end of the current war) will allow the Russians to rebuild their military capabilities in the region, particularly in the Black Sea, and prepare for the next phase of the conflict.

This is such a delicate hint at both Turkey's role in further securing the Black Sea and, in my opinion, the need to resolve the limitation of the Russian military presence in the Black Sea in the post-war period. In a broad geopolitical context, both the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Persian Gulf war demonstrate the extraordinary growth of the role of the straits of the sea for international security and global trade.

Another warning Zaluzhny has for the future is the growing role of China, which "if it does not pose a threat, it certainly poses a challenge that all countries in the region should take seriously." The former WSU chief noted that China is gradually and cautiously expanding its own presence in the Black Sea region. However, this could be the reason for the formation of a completely different geopolitical entity, which will make it necessary to reconsider the role of all actors in the region.

What surprised me a bit was the lack of mention (by Zaluzhny) of the role of the United States for the security of the Black Sea region. Perhaps it is because this role is virtually non-existent now. And that in itself is a serious problem. Valeriy Fedorovich's critical remarks about the lack of NATO strategy in the Black Sea region fully apply to the United States as well. However, probably, the ex-head of the AFU purely for tactical reasons does not want to mention the United States "in vain". The Trump administration does not like criticism of its own.

Doubtless, the main threat to the security of the Black Sea region is Russia's desire to dominate the Black Sea. We are at war with this threat in the literal sense. But Valery Zaluzhny reminds other countries of the region that the most dangerous thing is that Russia's interference in the affairs of the Black Sea countries may be too covert. Ukraine once felt it on its bitter experience. Therefore, there can be neither illusions nor reassurance with regard to Russia. In my opinion, we should also take into account that for Russia, dominance in the Black Sea is a military and political springboard for influence in the Mediterranean region and the Middle East.

To summarize, I would like to note that a common security strategy and joint coordinated actions of Ukraine and our international partners are needed to contain Russia's aggressive ambitions in the Black Sea region.

Vladimir Fesenko, Facebook