Will Putin Go Through With It?

• Dmytro Kuleba
• 10.06.2026, 11:55

On Two Unresolved Issues of This War

Regarding the flood of posts about a turning point in the war, such as the idea that Ukraine is winning. It’s an information cascade where everyone starts competing. We live in an attention economy—everyone is competing for attention. Someone wrote something, others immediately picked it up, and now I’ll write something opposite just to draw attention to myself. People are running ahead of their fathers into hell. For one simple reason. I really don’t want to be a killjoy who sits around and stops people from enjoying themselves, but, first of all, in November we’ll return to the story of how we’re all going to survive the winter.

Second, nowhere in human history have the turning points of war been determined at the very moment something happens. Did Zhukov really go to Stalin after the liberation of Stalingrad and report to him about a turning point in the war? Or did Manstein call Hitler and say, “Comrade Hitler, I’m sorry, but a turning point in the war has occurred; Berlin will fall in two years”? That’s nonsense.

It’s all people’s pursuit of finding a stronger image, an argument, to convince others. All turning points are determined in hindsight. Most wars get their names decades after they’ve ended. Because World War I wasn’t World War I in the eyes of its contemporaries. That’s why all this talk about a turning point in the war—that Ukraine has turned the tide and will now reach the Kremlin—is all nonsense.

I understand that for the mindset of some viewers, listeners, or readers, this is a very useful narrative. I agree on this point: if it makes people’s lives easier, please listen and read. But we must keep a cool head. I’m all for us thinking with our heads.

Today, we have indeed stabilized Russia’s pressure on Ukraine and, at the same time, found a way to increase Ukraine’s pressure on Russia. That’s it; nothing else has happened. As for whether this is a turning point in the war, we won’t be able to say for sure for at least a year or two, depending on the intensity of the conflict.
So I wouldn’t get too carried away right now. But the fact that the situation today is better than it was six months ago must be acknowledged. But whether it will be even better in six months is an open question.

I recently watched a video where Fire Point tested a ballistic missile and said they would strike Moscow. The only unresolved question regarding our war is whether Fire Point’s ballistic missiles will reach Moscow and whether Putin will then decide to use nuclear weapons. In principle, I personally have no other unanswered questions about our war. These are the two questions.

If we create a ballistic program that truly poses a threat to Moscow and major Russian cities, it will force Putin to take the next step. And what he will do, what his next step will be—that is another question.

Dmytro Kuleba, New Voice