Moscow's "impenetrable Shield" Has Cracked
- 21.06.2026, 10:28
DW revealed how Ukrainian drones bypassed Russian air defenses.
A massive attack by Ukrainian drones on Moscow on June 18 once again drew attention to the state of Russia’s air defense.
Despite the Kremlin’s claims that its air defense system is operating effectively, experts point to a number of problems that are increasingly allowing Ukrainian drones to reach key targets on Russian territory, writes DW.
In particular, a major oil refinery that supplies about 40% of the Moscow region’s fuel needs was hit during the attack. There were also reports of a temporary suspension of operations at one of Russia’s largest airports.
Russian military analyst and founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team Ruslan Leviev urges people not to jump to conclusions about a complete failure of Russia’s air defense.
“This impression is formed by non-specialists who see how a missile flies past a drone without hitting it,” he explained.
According to the expert, Russian air defense forces managed to intercept more than 90% of the drones that attacked Moscow. At the same time, even the few drones that broke through the defenses were able to inflict significant damage.
In Leviev’s view, the main problem is not the quality of air defense systems, but the scale of the attacks: “Massive drone attacks require more equipment than any industry can provide.”
Ukrainian drones have become a much more challenging target
Ukrainian aviation expert and former Air Force officer Anatoliy Khrapchynskyi believes that the success of Ukrainian drones is due not only to their numbers but also to technological progress.
According to him, Russian systems, particularly the “Pantsir-S1,” were designed primarily to counter cruise missiles and large aerial targets.
“They were calibrated to detect metal targets with high radar reflectivity, but modern drones are often made of composite materials, such as plastic or plywood,” the expert explained.
As a result, some drones become significantly less detectable by radar.
In addition, according to Khrapchinsky, Ukrainian long-range drones have learned to plot complex flight paths and bypass areas where they might be intercepted.
Russia has weakened its own defense system
Experts cite the redeployment of Russian air defense systems to the occupied territories of Ukraine as another factor. According to Khrapchynsky, Moscow’s defense system used to be multi-layered and consisted of several echelons of protection.
“Russia’s redeployment has led to the collapse of what was once a multi-layered air defense system, and now it is more of a patchwork structure,” he noted.
A shortage of long-range S-300 air defense systems could pose an additional problem. According to U.S. media reports citing Ukrainian sources, Russia is facing difficulties in replenishing its stockpiles of such systems due to sanctions and a shortage of components.
Khrapchynsky also attributes this to the active use of S-300 missiles to strike Ukrainian cities: “Russia has fallen into the trap of the very ‘mathematics of war’ that it once tried to impose.”
Experts also point to the geographical factor. According to Leviev, it is practically impossible to create a continuous protective dome over the entire territory of Russia due to its vast size.
Moscow itself poses a separate challenge for air defense. Dense urban development and a large number of high-rise buildings create additional difficulties in detecting small targets.
“The denser the development—especially with high-rise buildings—the easier it is for drones to hide from radar behind buildings,” Leviev explained.
The Kremlin is trying to downplay the significance of the attack
Following the strike on Moscow, Russian authorities stated that the air defense system had functioned effectively. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized that strikes on Ukraine will continue in the future.
At the same time, Leviev believes that the attacks by Ukrainian drones have not only a military but also a political impact. He says: “From a military standpoint, the drone strikes have changed very little. They are more like political strikes, a way to influence public opinion.”
In his view, such attacks take on special significance in the run-up to the Russian State Duma elections, which are scheduled for September.