ISW: Russia Faces "cascading Consequences"
- 8.06.2026, 9:18
The AFU took control of the Russians' logistics in the south.
The mid-range strikes that Ukraine has been launching against Russian logistics routes in the occupied territories of southern and eastern Ukraine continue to disrupt Russian logistics, and these operational consequences are only likely to intensify in the near future.
This is the prediction said in a report by the Institute for the Study of War.
The ISW analysts drew attention to the potential consequences of Ukrainian fire control over Russian logistics routes along the M-04 Izvirino-Donetsk-Dnipro highway. Back on May 31, the Third Army Corps of the AFU announced that Lugansk, Starobelsk, Alchevsk, Bryanka, Kadiivka, and even the Izvarino checkpoint area on the border with Russia (all in the Lugansk region) were henceforth under the control of Third Army Corps drones.
The ISW experts, referring to the assessments of Ukrainian drones, state that this highway M-04 is even more important logistical route for the occupants than the highway M-14, which connects Rostov region with Crimea through the south of Ukraine. Through the M-04 Russia supplies cargo to occupied Crimea, southern Ukraine, Lugansk region (via Millerovo and Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in Rostov region) and Donetsk region (via Novoshakhtinsk in Rostov region).
The ISW adds that the M-04 and M-14 highways are interconnected, with Ukrainian troops also striking sections of the H-20 highway, which connects the M-04 to the M-14 via Donetsk. Therefore, experts suggest that Ukraine's strikes are likely to cause even deeper cascading effects in Russia's operational rear in the near future.
In the meantime, these efforts by the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to complicate Russian logistics along the M-04 and M-14 highways. Russian proxy in the occupied territories of Luhansk region Leonid Pasechnik issued a decree on June 6 banning the movement of commercial passenger vehicles along a section of the M-04 highway that runs through the Luhansk region. Petro Andryushchenko, head of the Center for Occupation Studies, said on June 7 that Russian forces had to change their Mariupol-Berdyansk logistical route and now use smaller local roads near the coast instead of the M14 highway that connects the two cities. Andryushchenko added that Russian troops are trying to disguise their military equipment as civilian vehicles by changing the color of the awnings on truck bodies and repainting trucks white.
The ISW speculates that the use of smaller roads and detours is likely to slow down Russian logistics, while Ukrainian troops are likely to continue hitting Russian equipment on routes in these areas in the near future.