Ex-Armenian Ambassador To Russia: Armenians Voted Against Putin
- 8.06.2026, 12:28
Putin is finally losing Armenia and the entire South Caucasus.
Armenia's parliamentary elections have taken place. According to preliminary data, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Pact party holds a confident victory.
How did these elections go and what is known about the results so far? Charter97.org talked about it with Stepan Grigoryan, one of the leaders of the democratic movement in Armenia in the 1990s, a former deputy of the Supreme Soviet of the republic and former Armenian ambassador to Russia.
- It is very important that Nikol Pashinyan won these elections. His Civil Pact party scored 49.8 percent. Two pro-Russian parties are also running for parliament. They are Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia and ex-president Robert Kocharyan's Armenia bloc . Together, they garnered about 37 percent.
This means Nikol Pashinyan won. His party got slightly less than 50 percent, but Armenia's proportional system has an important feature. Four forces pass into parliament, and the votes of parties that did not pass the barrier are redistributed among those that did.
After this recalculation, according to the law, Nikol Pashinyan's party will have about 58 percent inside parliament. That is, the Civil Pact will have a majority. It gives the right to form a government and pursue its policy. So now we have a situation in which Nikol Pashinyan will form the new government.
But there is an important nuance here. Pashinyan wanted to get a constitutional majority. For example, if he had won 52-53 percent of the votes, he could have gotten about 67 percent of the seats in the parliament after the recalculation. This is a very important subtlety.
My predictions here came true 100 percent. That's important to me as a professional. Many people said to me: "You are helping Nikol Pashinyan, why don't you say that they will get a constitutional majority?" But I'm a professional, I study the situation deeply.
It's very important that Pashinyan got the majority. This is a really big victory, especially with the pressure that Russia exerted. Pashinyan actually defeated Putin.
Pashinyan will form a parliamentary majority, but he doesn't have a constitutional majority. What did he need it for? Many people do not know this subtlety of our Constitution. In Armenia it is possible to declare a referendum only through a constitutional majority in the parliament. There are no other mechanisms.
If Pashinyan does not have a constitutional majority, and the other forces will never support him on such issues, it means that he will not be able to get the necessary votes for constitutional changes. Especially on the issue with Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan demands that Armenia change the Constitution where there is a reference to Karabakh. It is a reference to the Declaration of Independence. In principle, our government is ready for this. If we remove this reference, nothing terrible will happen. But this can only be done through constitutional changes. And they are possible only if there is a constitutional majority in the parliament.
So, the fact that there is no constitutional majority is not terrible. But this, of course, restrains Nikol Pashinyan's hands a bit. At the same time, he has a parliamentary majority, and he will be able to pass important laws.
- How can Armenia's political course change after Pashinyan's victory?
- It is already clear that Armenia will continue its path to Europe. This is very good and very important.
Eurointegration process will continue. It is also very important that the TRIPP program will continue. These are all programs related to the USA. I think everything will be fine. But there will be problems with changing the Constitution and other issues.
I think Pashinyan will act bolder now. 58 percent in the parliament is also a big percentage. I think he will consistently and more rigidly go towards European integration. Of course, Pashinyan will definitely call Putin. He will talk to him so that there will not be too tough a confrontation. He will make some steps for balancing.
But this victory gives him an opportunity to lead Armenia to European integration more consistently. Still, there was a lot of pressure in the society. Many criticized this course, saying that European integration is bad, and Eurasianism is our "holy place". After these elections, he can boldly take steps with Azerbaijan. This mandate he has received is a mandate for peace.
- What does Pashinyan's victory mean for Putin? How will the Kremlin react to the loss of Armenia and the weakening of its influence in the region?"
- First, the Kremlin lost Armenia a long time ago. It did so when it surrendered Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
But now the Kremlin has lost Armenia once again, definitively. Why? Because Moscow has organized a terrible campaign. Every day Russian officials were scaring us. Then they closed the markets for our goods. And nothing worked. They failed to influence Armenian society.
This means that the Kremlin has lost serious influence in Armenia. Even blackmail didn't work. This is a very serious defeat. The Kremlin's second defeat after betraying Armenia on the Karabakh issue. They lost us then, and now they have lost us again.
Russia began blackmailing Armenia and doing things that are completely illogical. Putin lost this argument with Nikol Pashinyan. On April 1, 2026, it was already an open dispute between Putin and Pashinyan. And according to the results of the elections, Putin lost it.
More than that, Putin threatened until the last days. Every time it sounded: we will do it, we will do it, come to your senses, you will be like in Ukraine. Despite these intimidations, the Kremlin lost by the full program.
And in Moldova the victory of pro-European forces was clear, but still difficult. Including at the expense of Moldovans from abroad. In the case of Armenia, citizens inside the country voted against the Kremlin. This is a very important point.
The Russians, I think, were able to bring several thousand Armenian citizens from Russia to vote against Pashinyan. But Armenian citizens in Armenia itself voted for him. And Pashinyan won.
That is, Putin is consistently losing Armenia, and therefore losing the South Caucasus. Because Putin's positions in Azerbaijan and Georgia have always been weak. Now he is finally losing Armenia, so he is losing the South Caucasus on a full program.
The Russians have been scaring us with the Ukrainian scenario. For example, Alexei Overchuk just a day or two before the elections said that if the pro-Russian forces do not win, Russia will close the market for Armenia altogether.
But the answer is already coming from the Europeans. Holland and Latvia have opened their markets for our flowers. Yes, our flowers are already going to Holland and Latvia. Our flower production is big, but not big enough to satisfy the Dutch market. Because Holland is a world market, one of the centers of world trade in flowers. And now it will be the same for other products.
For many goods, the reorientation to Europe will quickly begin. We have good products. Yes, there are goods that do not meet European standards. But there are some that do. Europe will quickly help us reorient ourselves.
That is, the first blow that Putin will inflict on us will be softened. Of course, there will be losses for some economic entities in Armenia. But Nikol Pashinyan promised to compensate these losses.
Now there is another important issue. Let's look at the actions of the pro-Russian opposition in Armenia. Recently, it has been constantly talking about serious violations. I believe that the elections were quite transparent. But if they believe that there were violations, some arrests and so on, they should go out on protest actions. They should file complaints with the Central Election Commission and the courts.
We will see whether they will do it or not. This is also a very important criterion of the situation.
It seems to me that a legitimate parliament has been formed in Armenia. It was a competitive election. Everybody had the opportunity to say what they want and when they want. Now we will see how the opposition will behave and what they will say.