What Tokayev Actually Said

• Konstantin Eggert
• 27.07.2026, 14:34

A classic of diplomacy.

The three-minute video of the meeting between Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Vladimir Putin on July 25 at the Russia-Kazakhstan Business Forum should be shown in political science departments at universities and in diplomatic academies. In this short time, the President of Kazakhstan conveyed several important messages to a wide range of audiences—in Kazakhstan itself, in Russia, and around the world.

Tokayev speaks with partners without mincing words

Tokayev spoke with Putin on “his”—Putin’s—territory—in Omsk. However, the tone of his remarks was more as if they were meeting in Astana. Moreover, Tokayev spoke very politely, but with a slightly instructive tone, as if an elder were speaking to a younger person, even though the two politicians are practically the same age. For the president of Kazakhstan, who has secured the opportunity to effectively run for a second seven-year term (his current term was “reset” by parliament), it is important to demonstrate at home that he speaks with partners as a defender of national interests, without favoritism.

Moreover, young Kazakhs tend to sympathize with Ukraine, and after nearly five years of full-scale invasion, this trend is spreading to other demographic groups as well. Clearly, Tokayev—who sees himself as the country’s long-term leader—cannot ignore this.

Trump and von der Leyen — “in favor”

The President of Kazakhstan made it clear to his Russian counterpart that he was addressing him at the request of Europe and the United States. The message: Tokayev is such a high-profile figure that, figuratively speaking, Macron, von der Leyen, and Trump are asking him to influence Putin, since they themselves have given up on doing so. In other words, he can say anything he wants to Putin, and Putin shouldn’t take offense—after all, this is the opinion of Trump and others. As they say, nothing personal.

At the same time, the President of Kazakhstan rejected in advance the idea of Astana mediating in the conflict with Ukraine. The extensive economic ties with Russia make Kazakhstan not the most suitable mediator from Ukraine’s perspective. Both Putin and Tokayev himself are well aware of this. That is precisely why the statement about the unwillingness to mediate came from the guest from Astana in roughly these words: “You, Vladimir, made this mess; you’ll have to clean it up. Don’t expect any help.”

Putin’s Lies and Tokayev’s Truth

And what exactly did the Russian dictator get us into, according to Tokayev? “This is an interstate conflict, not a civil war.” The message: “All this talk about ‘Ukrainian Nazis’ massacring peaceful miners in Donbas is a lie. Russia attacked Ukraine.” “We do not understand the reasons for the conflict.” Message: “Putin cannot be trusted; his decisions are irrational.” “In Kazakhstan, the Ukrainian language and culture are respected.” Message: “The sovereignty of Ukraine—and therefore that of all of Russia’s neighbors, including, of course, Kazakhstan—is not up for review. Do not expect recognition of the annexation of Crimea or the so-called ‘LPR-DPR’—never.”

“It would be good to ‘freeze’ the conflict and return to the Istanbul Formula for Negotiations 2.0.” Message: “Trump will give Russia one more chance—but he himself will no longer try to persuade Putin.” Message number two: “I discuss the war with the U.S. administration, and they consider me a reliable and respected partner.”

“The gene pool of two brotherly nations is being destroyed in this war,” Tokayev stated. Formally, this seems to equate the responsibility of the two warring sides. But, given Tokayev’s other remarks and the context, I interpreted this message as: “You are destroying your own country.” And an additional message, back home to Kazakhstan: “We have peace, and I am its guarantor.”

A diplomatic classic

And finally, “Kazakhstan considers Russia a great power.” This is a classic diplomatic move, analogous to the standard closing of any letter to any head of state: “Please accept, Mr. President, the assurance of my deepest respect.” The message: no message at all—just a formality.

A number of Russian Telegram channels described Tokayev’s speech in Omsk as a reaction to Kazakhstan’s financial and economic losses resulting from Ukrainian strikes on Russian port infrastructure and terminals through which Kazakhstani hydrocarbons are exported.

I am certain that this three-minute speech was prepared in advance and endorsed by Washington and Brussels. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, like Maia Sandu, Nikol Pashinyan, and even Ilham Aliyev before him, made it clear: Russia can no longer claim to have special political influence in neighboring countries. This process is irreversible and no longer depends on either the Russian dictator or those who will succeed him.

Konstantin Eggert, “Deutsche Welle”