"The Situation In Russia Could Spiral Out Of Control"

• 15.08.2026, 20:48

A Russian opposition activist identified the regime's vulnerabilities.

Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia has many vulnerabilities. Against the backdrop of catastrophically low approval ratings for both the government and Putin himself, the Kremlin dictator is stepping up his aggressive rhetoric, and the prospect of mass mobilization in Russia is becoming increasingly real. Nevertheless, the regime is in a dire state and is incapable of acts of open aggression against Ukraine’s Western allies.

Moreover, the elections scheduled to take place in Russia in September could serve as a catalyst for dangerous social upheavals that the authorities will be unable to keep under control. One way to bring about regime change in Russia would be a scenario similar to the attempted coup d’état in 1991. This view was expressed in an exclusive interview OBOZ.UA by Russian opposition activist Olga Kurnosova, who has been designated a “foreign agent” in Russia.

– During a meeting with military officials aboard the cruiser “Varyag,” Putin effectively threatened the European Union with the seizure of merchant ships. This was his response to the EU’s blocking and detention of Russian “shadow fleet” vessels. Does this statement suggest that the “shadow fleet” is Putin’s Achilles’ heel? Do you think Putin might go beyond these threats and resort to aggressive actions against the bloc’s member states?

– Of course, I don’t consider the “shadow fleet” to be an Achilles’ heel simply because today’s regime in Russia has so many vulnerabilities that it’s simply impossible to compare it to Achilles. Yes, the confiscation of “shadow fleet” vessels is certainly a painful issue for Russia. We know of several cases where they were sold, which is why Putin is trying to put on a show.

Let’s not forget that on September 20, Russia will hold what are, so to speak, elections—or what they call elections. The pre-election campaign is now in full swing; the approval ratings for the government and for Putin personally are catastrophically low, which is why he’s bending over backward to project a sense of normalcy. But what he’s doing now—this attempt to make it seem like he has everything under control—is, in fact, completely at odds with reality.

As a side note, his logic is, as always, very poor, because his statement about a response is logically contradictory. Essentially, he’s talking about launching asymmetric strikes because they plan to carry them out in various locations, but a “mirror response” is, in fact, a symmetric response, because, as we know, a mirror surface creates absolute symmetry.

– The situation is such that the British coast is effectively left unprotected today, even though Russian warships are constantly present there. Do you think Putin might take advantage of this temporary weakness in Britain’s defenses to launch some kind of—at the very least—hybrid attack in this region?

– Russia carries out hybrid attacks constantly, and we constantly hear reports of drones straying into the area, saboteurs, and spies; so, of course, it’s possible that Russia will continue to carry out hybrid attacks. But that’s precisely why they’re hybrid attacks—they don’t actually pose a serious threat. The regime cannot resort to anything more serious simply because it is in a dire state. First and foremost, the Russian economy is in very dire straits, so Putin certainly cannot expand his authority or capabilities any further.

– How do you assess the current situation inside Russia? You’ve already mentioned the so-called elections scheduled for late September. The Yabloko party—the only political force that advocated for ending the war—has been barred from the elections on trumped-up charges. In addition, we are seeing continued attacks on Wildberries marketplace warehouses, which, of course, are also provoking a certain reaction within Russian society. Do you think that significant social developments might occur within the Russian Federation during the elections, before them, or immediately after them?

– After all, there’s still a little over a month left until the elections, and the situation is evolving quite rapidly. We understand perfectly well that Yabloko was removed from the election precisely because its approval rating was rising very quickly. Accordingly, it’s clear that in a situation where there is no “against all” option on the ballot, the only candidates one will be able to vote for in this election are certain single-district candidates who remain on the ballot—including those from Yabloko or others who are more or less known to the public. As for the half of the Duma elected through party lists, there’s simply no one left there for whom one could vote with a clear conscience.

Therefore, one shouldn’t think that the elections could lead to a change in power. No, of course not, but since the situation will continue to become increasingly politically tense anyway, the elections could serve as a catalyst for subsequent events. As we know, this happens very often in post-Soviet countries: it’s precisely after elections that some kind of political upheaval begins—whether a “Velvet Revolution” or something else.

Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that these elections could mark the point after which the situation escalates. A separate question is to what extent the authorities will be prepared to resort to overtly repressive measures, and what the people will be willing to tolerate.

But then again, the danger of a new wave of mobilization, conscription, or something similar—which would exacerbate the situation—is growing ever greater; livestock confiscations have resumed in Siberia, so the preconditions for an escalation are piling up. Therefore, yes, I believe that after the elections, the situation could spiral out of the authorities’ control.

– President Zelenskyy, without going into details, stated that Ukraine, together with its international partners, has developed a joint plan to end the war and increase pressure on Russia. He said: “Putin doesn’t want to stop this war, but he will stop it; we have a plan, and we understand what needs to be done. This is a joint plan with our partners.” He added that the war must be brought back onto Russian territory so that Russian society can feel its consequences firsthand and put pressure on the government. In your opinion, what could really force Putin to end this war?

– August marks the anniversary of the GKChP (State Committee for the State of Emergency—a self-proclaimed governing body in the USSR, which existed from August 18 to 21, 1991, and attempted to remove President Mikhail Gorbachev from power and thwart the signing of the new Union Treaty. – Ed.). It seems to me that this is the most effective way. If we recall what the GKChP did? It declared that Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev was incapable of performing his duties due to his health.

So if a group of comrades were to conclude that Putin is unable to perform his duties due to his health, I think this time everyone would applaud and agree wholeheartedly. Here, if you will, is one possible scenario, but there are probably others.

– One last question—regarding Putin’s residence in Gelendzhik. Our Defense Forces are methodically destroying air defense and electronic warfare systems in the area around this residence. Do you admit the purely theoretical possibility that the Kremlin dictator could be eliminated in precisely this way—let’s say, remotely?

– Well, I certainly admit the purely theoretical possibility, but, as we can see, Putin is currently on the Kuril Islands, as far away from Gelendzhik as possible. So it’s unlikely he’ll go to Gelendzhik.

But the fact that a strike on Putin’s residence in Gelendzhik is apparently being prepared—that, it seems to me, is clear to everyone. Everyone is waiting for this to happen, because it’s a well-known residence that Navalny once made a film about (the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s investigative documentary “A Palace for Putin: The Story of the Biggest Bribe,” was released on January 19, 2021. — Ed.). It would be very, very interesting to see what’s inside after such an attack.