Foreign Policy: Tough Times Ahead For The Taliban
- 24.08.2026, 16:57
The radicals' hold on power is only temporary.
Five years after returning to power, the Taliban continues to control Afghanistan and has proven to be more resilient than many expected. However, in the coming years, the movement may face several serious threats at once—ranging from a new armed resistance to a conflict with Pakistan and internal divisions, writes Foreign Policy.
After the withdrawal of U.S. troops in August 2021, the Taliban inherited a country with a devastated economy, a weak private sector, and total dependence on foreign aid. Despite this, the regime has managed to maintain control over the territory.
Since 2021, there has been no resumption of the large-scale war that had been a part of life in Afghanistan for nearly four decades. The Taliban has also managed to weaken the “Islamic State—Khorasan,” which has led to a decrease in the number of terrorist attacks. However, the situation remains extremely difficult for women, religious minorities, and opponents of the regime.
The economy has also outperformed forecasts. The World Bank expects the country’s GDP to grow by nearly 5% annually. The Taliban is increasing its revenue through taxes and customs duties, and trade with Central Asian countries helps sustain economic activity.
At the same time, the regime’s international isolation is gradually easing. About 20 countries maintain diplomatic missions in Kabul, and Taliban representatives are working in a number of Asian capitals. Russia remains the only country to have officially recognized the movement as the government of Afghanistan.
“However, the regime may face a much more difficult period ahead. Former Afghan military officer Sami Sadat has announced the formation of a new armed movement against the Taliban. Economic hardships could fuel public discontent and draw new supporters to the resistance,” the authors write.
Another threat is “Islamic State—Khorasan,” which could launch an attack. At the same time, the Taliban’s relations with Pakistan are deteriorating. Islamabad accuses the group of harboring militants who oppose Pakistan and has already carried out strikes on Afghan territory.
External pressure could intensify internal divisions within the Taliban itself. “The next five years will not be so easy for the group,” the publication writes.
The Taliban has so far shown unexpected resilience, but its stability depends largely on its ability to simultaneously sustain the economy, control armed groups, and prevent open conflict with its neighbors. It is precisely this combination of factors that could make the next five years significantly more difficult for the regime than the first.