Overnight: Estonia's Intelligence Chief Predicts Putin's Rapid Downfall
- 30.08.2026, 3:55
Change in Russia can happen surprisingly quickly.
A sharp political shift could occur in Russia “literally overnight.” Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is now effectively trapped, with no safe way out.
This view was expressed by the head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaupo Rosin, according to The Telegraph.
In his view, Putin finds himself in a situation where virtually any further scenario in the war against Ukraine poses serious risks for him. If he decides to continue the war, he will face increased casualties on the front lines and a worsening economic situation in the country.
In such a scenario, domestic tensions could continue to rise, and at some point, members of Putin’s inner circle may conclude that maintaining the current leadership is becoming riskier than attempting to change the situation.
If Putin decides to stop, however, that is also dangerous for him, as he will appear weak within Russia. Rozin notes that the dictator’s own assessment of the situation may differ significantly from that of his inner circle.
While Putin remains convinced that Russia will supposedly “achieve victory” sooner or later, an increasing number of people in his inner circle are calling for a reevaluation of this approach.
According to the head of Estonian intelligence, the objective reality is that Russia is in very poor shape, and many in the economic sector—as well as some oligarchs—understand this.
Estonian intelligence is also noting growing discontent among ordinary Russians over the continuation of the war; this discontent is spreading across various segments of Russian society, though there is no revolutionary situation yet.
Rozin believes that if changes do eventually begin in Russia, the process will unfold rapidly. “If something changes in Russia, it will happen very quickly, and we will all be surprised. If it ever happens at all, it will happen literally overnight,” said the head of Estonian intelligence.