Winter Wheat Planting In Russia May Be A Failure
- 16.09.2026, 17:42
Farmers are short on money and fuel.
The shutdown of Black Sea ports, which paralyzed Russian grain exports and left farmers without income, has jeopardized the planting of winter wheat, which accounts for two-thirds of the annual grain harvest in the Russian Federation;
As of early September, Russian farmers had planted 2.6 million hectares of winter crops, including 2.4 million hectares of wheat, which is 25% below the average for recent years, according to a report by the analytical center "SovEcon".
According to SovEcon’s estimates, Russian grain exports in August and September fell to their lowest levels since 2010—nearly one-third of the average levels for those months. Meanwhile, domestic grain prices have plummeted due to a surplus of unsold crops. “Current prices for the 2026 harvest are tens of percent below production costs. At the same time, the sharp rise in fuel prices is further worsening the economics of the 2027 harvest,” writes “SovEcon.”
A survey of 1,000 farmers, the results of which are published by Nikita Tokmakov , a farm owner in the Voronezh Region, shows that: 26% of agricultural producers have decided to completely abandon winter wheat planting this year, while 32% are preparing to reduce their planted acreage. Only 29% are planting at the same level as before.
This year’s winter crop planting could be a “failure,” warns Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union. “The main risk is a lack of money. And this will have a much greater impact [on the harvest] than a decline in production technology and all other factors. There simply won’t be enough money to buy the necessary resources to plant in the fall. There’s physically no money for it. It’s too late to start now. We need to purchase resources right now to carry out the fall planting, but there’s no money,” explains Zlochevsky.
Due to drone attacks, the ports on the Sea of Azov—through which up to 1.5 million metric tons of Russian grain were shipped for export each month—have been shut down since mid-July. In August, all three grain terminals at the port of Novorossiysk—through which farmers exported 25 million metric tons of grain annually—ceased operations. As a result, grain exports from Russia fell by nearly 60% year-over-year last month, to 2.2 million metric tons, and may drop to 2 million metric tons in September, according to SovEcon estimates.
“There is currently no clear path to restoring safe navigation in the Black Sea. This issue, it appears, is now tied to broader negotiations regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, rather than to a separate maritime ceasefire,” — notes Andrei Sizov , CEO of SovEcon .
In a pessimistic scenario, 35 million metric tons of this year’s grain harvest could remain unsold, of which 22 million metric tons are wheat, according to estimates by Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical firm “ProZerno.” “This is no longer just a problem, but a catastrophic scenario that could lead to a very serious crisis for the entire grain industry,” he notes.