Merz May Lose His Position As German Chancellor By The End Of The Week
- 17.09.2026, 13:06
For the first time, the ruling party lost a state election to the far right.
Less than a year and a half after the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came to power in Germany as the leader of the ruling coalition, the party lost a state election to the far right for the first time.
This coming Sunday, elections will be held in yet another state, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania—where, for the first time in its history, the CDU may not even clear the 5% threshold—as well as in Berlin. On the same day, Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with the CDU leadership, at which a decision regarding his resignation may be made.
Senior party officials are already discussing privately whether the chancellor should be replaced to halt the rapid loss of voter support, according to Politico. Merz’s own approval rating dropped to 14% this week, while that of the CDU bloc and its allied party, the CSU, fell to an unprecedented 18%. Meanwhile, the far-right “Alternative for Germany” enjoys 29% support; two weeks ago, it received nearly 44% in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, while the CDU’s share fell by more than half.
Merz has scheduled a meeting of the CDU’s executive committee for Sunday evening, when exit poll data and the first election results will begin to come in, according to ZDF. He wants to initiate an “indirect vote of confidence” by asking the party leadership whether it is prepared to support him and his economic reform agenda. If not, Merz will ask them to nominate a successor, according to ZDF and Politico.
Even if the party does not support Merz, he could remain in office for weeks, or even months, while a new candidate is agreed upon. In particular, this will have to be discussed with the Social Democratic Party, which is part of the ruling coalition. Furthermore, Merz has no strong opponents within the CDU, and he is counting on this to a large extent as he raises the question of support.
Merz is “forcing potential opponents to openly state their position,” but for now, it seems “no one is ready to do so yet,” says Torsten Faas, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin:
“The Bundestag elections will take place in just two and a half years. Next year, there will be numerous state parliament elections. None of the potential successors are stepping into the spotlight. The fact that the debate on this issue is still raging indicates enormous nervousness within the CDU.”
On Wednesday, the prime ministers of eight states published a letter stating that “Germany needs reliability and action,” not “discussions about personnel issues.” The letter also mentions elections in France, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Greece, which will take place next year, and notes that Europe now needs “a stable and strong Germany.”
This letter is far from being an unconditional endorsement of Merz, notes Politico: it does not even mention his name, but it may indicate that, at this point, the CDU’s top leadership lacks sufficient desire to oust him. Instead, the party may try to close ranks and regain popularity by calling on the Social Democrats to support even more decisive social reforms.
Merz recently stated that he was elected for four years and wants to prove that the coalition is capable of carrying out reforms. “I am firmly committed to staying the course,” he said at a meeting of the Federation of German Wholesale and Foreign Trade.